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Thursday, November 25, 2010

Thursday Updates!!!!

8:50, It did not take long this morning for the ES-Minis to get the 5th wave underway, currently at 1200 even. 1205.50 is the pevious high. It will be interesting to see if this wraps up today, and reverses for the cash open tomorrow, leaving the futures chart as an impulse, and the cash chart as another corrective.
There are still multiple ways this "B" wave can play out on the cash SPX, a simple flat, 3-3-5, a double zig-zag a-b-c-x-a-b-c, and the triangle a-b-c-d-e. This is why the impulse wave present on the futures over-night might help to eliminate some of the options. EWT discourages trading corrective waves, because there are just too many possible ways they can play out and simple corrections can easily morph into complex structures. Two of the options do favor lower lows after the "B" wave wraps-up, and the third option, the 2x ZZ for the "B" wave would be a larger degree triangle for the 4th wave with this "B" wave followed by a "C, D, and E" wave to complete the 4th, this option also would take the longest time to play-out. If the SPX manages to break above the lower thick green channel line, there maybe something else going on, like the 4th wave is already wrapped up as a double zig-zag. However it would be unusual for the 4th wave to be a sharp correction because the 2nd wave down was also sharp and one of the guidelines in EWT calls for alteration between the 2nd, and 4th wave. One should be a sharp correction, and the other a flat correction.
Confused yet?

6:33, The ES-minis were flat over-night tracing out what looks like the 4th wave, if so, the "C" wave up would be an impulse wave which takes the triangular option off the table for the larger degree 4th wave, since a triangle can only be labeled as 3-3-3-3-3. The "A" wave I have labeled as an impulse, but if push came to shove it can also be labeled as a corrective a-b-c, however this "C" wave is much more clear-cut impulsive. The final 5th wave needs to extend so that wave "C" is equal to the length of the "A" wave for a zig-zag 5-3-5, or the optional flat 3-3-5.

6:16, The Dollar held strong over-night with a current HOD at $80.08, resistance from the previous low is at $80.17, but as long as the Dollar remains in the green channel, the trend continues up.

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