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Monday, November 1, 2010

Monday Updates!!!

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12:14, The BKX has broke below the final support from the long-term bullish Fib fan, this could be the canary in the coal mine!!!
(BTW, this canary is on life-support now) 9:48, The STO indicator has rolled over to a buy on the weekly VIX. Signs are pointing to the VIX having a bottom in, but it still needs to confirm a new bullish trend by making a higher high, and having a break-out of the MACD.
8:49, The Bollinger bands on the daily chart are starting to get tight. A couple of other notes on this chart is how well the 20 day MA has acted as support for this run off of the low back in September, and the diminishing volume over the past few sessions. A break below the 20 day MA could be another sign that this rally has exhausted itself. 8:28, Updated look at the SPX priced in Gold, not a pretty picture, and definitely does not bode well for all those that believe the SPX has been in a bull market for the last few months.
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7:23, The Median line on the SPX has came into play again, and so far is holding as resistance in this mess off over-lapping, choppy wave market. The short-term trend does remain up as the SPX has been unable to start printing any serious lower lows. Momentum is still declining as the MACD can not make any higher highs, just lower highs, this major divergence has been on going since the early part of September.
As much as I would love to put a count onto the squiggles, there is just not any one count going that is reliable enough to trade on, when that changes, I will start posting them once again!!!


  1. i wonder how the spx chart would look if it were corrected for the drop in the USD? i suspect much of the recent rally is directly correlated to the falling dollar, leaving many of the actual values largely unchanged. i think the spx value in terms of gold price is another way to look at the effect of the falling USD.

  2. Semi, If it were corrected for the falling dollar, it would of made a new high already.
    Click here

  3. i think i didn't state that clearly. since early september, the spx has increased about 13%. during that time, the USD has dropped about 8%.

    that means that more than half of the rise in the spx has been negated in value by a corresponding fall in the dollar during that time.

    any dollar-denomiated trade should rise as the dollar falls. i think that's at least part of the driver in commodities increases up until the past week or so (and is now making for rough going in commosities as the USD rebounds), and i think it has helped fuel the spx rise as well.

  4. I like your comment about no point counting this. There are blogs who make every effort to count this and say that they have best count.