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Friday, November 5, 2010

Friday updates!!!

I am sticking to my complex corrective count. If this current "C" wave equals:
138%-1252.82
150%-1273.86
161%-1293.14, of wave A
These would be the expected levels for the "C" wave to wrap up

This is from Robert Balan's book, and is a great source for complex corrective waves. Balan has spent years trading currencies and has observed and recorded many patterns that Prechter does not cover in his book. The lower right pattern is how I have the SPX counted, inverse, of course. BTW, if you have not downloaded Balan's book, you can do so for free,
Robert Balan's, EWP book, free download I am having big problems trying to justify this as a valid Elliott wave count. Maybe someone could help explain how to justify this 3rd wave. Comments?
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6:42, The SPX is close now to hitting resistance of the upper channel line and completing its five wave squiggle from yesterday's impulsive move up, first support would be the median channel line. If yesterday's move was part of a blow-over top, the SPX needs to reverse sharply after completing the final micro squiggles and start making lower lows, other-wise the up-trend continues bullish.

5 comments:

  1. Bens POMO was not around when EW was discovered

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  2. I agree, guess that $2 trillion can buy you an impulse wave.

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  3. PUG and Tony C has almost similar but impulsive Primary 1,2,3 count. They may different in subwaves of last 3rd wave but P1 ends at April high and P2 at july low. And I think within P1 theie 1-5 are also same. They justfy that with all RSI, overlapping issues you have pointed out and there is people who follow them so either people follow them are dumb or its valid count in EW. Now whether its correct count or not will be decided after 2-3 yrs. I have gone back to Tony C's few years and he has changed counts too. Pug started close to 1 yr back. Tony was looking for sure lower low below march 2009 low for quiet sometime .. in fact almost upto January 2010 and then suddenly he declared March 2009 is 34 yr cycle low. He says EW is monitor adjust and change (something like that) so may be he is right. We need to adjust and move on. My guess is unless 2014 low is done, we won't know which count is correct. There is one more thought that March low is really long term low but there will be IH&S with Oct 2002 low as LS March 2009 as H and sometime 2014-2015-2016 low as HS to end real secular bear market. I don't know which count it will fit but I guess we are safe to say we will go to close to Oct 2002 low or little higher mostly if not March 2009 low.

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  4. Also I have cycle theory matching 1966-1974 that if we will stay just above 1996 low in 2014 to end this.
    its 4 low's theory 1962, 1966, 1970, 1974 .. all 4 yr apart .. with last 3 lower lows and last low is above 1st low.
    Now 6 yr serise ..
    1996, 2002, 2008, 2014 ... so need last three lower lows but last low above 1st low. (march 2009 low dosen;t play in this)

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  5. Yash, thanks :)
    Tony uses OEW, which is slightly different from orthodox EW, so it is hard to compare his count to EW.
    Same feeling I get, as time goes on things will become clearer, something that Neely always has said, the beginning, and ending are the easiest to count, it is the middle where things become clouded.

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