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Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Wednesday updates

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8:31, Fib fan support is still holding in BKX.
8:23, The 20 day moving average is finally back in play and is currently providing support at 1168.44. Notice the volume over the last eight trading days, quickly diminishing.
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8:06, The SPX is close to testing support at 1171.17, a break below this level would most likely signal a top of some sort was in, 1171 is double support right now from both, a previous low, and a trendline. 7:58, The structure of this recent sell-off from the 1196.14 high does not look as impulsive as it does corrective. It would not be the first time however that the early waves(squiggles) of a major sell-off started as a corrective structure before exploding downwards in an impulsive fashion.
TNX, which tracks the yield on the 10 year bond is off the the races in an impulsive 3rd wave up, complete with some gaps for the point of recognition.
7:40, The VIX made a higher high, breaking above 21.59, and in doing so, also broke above the trendline. The major test for the VIX will be to break above the previous high of 24.52, moving the downtrend to a new uptrend.
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7:35, The SPX broke support from the middle band of the short-term(gray) Fib fan, and now is in the least bullish part of that fan, with new support in the 1175 range.

2 comments:

  1. thanks for that explanation of the formation of squigles OFF the top not looking impulsive- I have been looking at that and wondering HOW or why.

    1171 is hanging tough right now at 11:30am, but I do expect it to break today, and if the selling volume increases as aI expect we could get a rout by days end leading into tomorrow.

    2 days rebound friday & Monday,
    but Late Nov2nd to early 4th should finish this DOWN wave

    QE2, non event, no realistic expectations
    for the economy at first, but a sell off into the 4th, should setup a tech rebound to the full moon on the 21st.

    Jay

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  2. Nice Jay, I am suspecting the day after the election to get really ugly.

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