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Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Tuesday updates!!!

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8:50, The SPX made another short-term higher high above 1157.16 and might be in a new channel(black).
8:42, The Trend Finder has gone back to neutral.
8:22, The SPX is butting its head on the longterm trendline coming off of the all-time high, if it holds, this would be bearish, on the other hand, a break-out could be explosive if high volume accompanies the move, other-wise it could be a head-fake.
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7:18, This mornings move above the 1140 level turned the sell-off from 1157 into a three wave move, which is corrective, so now we are back to an on going series of corrections that started back on September 22nd. Two possibilities exist, an Ending Diagonal, or a long drawn-out 4th wave, both which have became filled with complex corrective patterns, and that opens the door for multiple ways to count the squiggles lowering the probabilities of any one count being correct. Resistance is at 1157.16, and 1173.57
Support is at 1131.87, and 1122.79.
The short-term trend is neutral until the SPX breaks support/resistance making a higher high, or lower low.
7:13, Right back to where we were yesterday, stuck in this trading range where the SPX cannot break-out with conviction. Volume yesterday was a killer for the bears case.

3 comments:

  1. would you say the new high from today has broken the long-term down-trend channel from the high of 2007? or, is it too close to call? in other words, is the uncertainty in the placement of the lower channel boundary such that the current daily high, which appears to break the channel, may still be considered to be within the channel?

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  2. semi, yes, plus I would like to see any break-out to have heavy volume to signify it was an important trendline

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  3. Trendlines are indeed being broken... HOD is now 1,160.550.

    Volume is extremely light however. Nevertheless, markets love Fed money. They are extremely sensitive to it, for some reason.... Takes so little (volume) to get markets to move so vigorously.

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