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Thursday, October 7, 2010

Thursday, After the close!!!

The long-term trendline from the peak is still holding as resistance!!!
There are some signs the Dollar might be bottoming, the 5/35 histogram is now diverging and is heading in an uptrend, a break above "zero" would sign a new bullish trend with the MACD, STO and RSI all in extreme over-sold positions, but the Dollar needs some follow-thru to todays bullish move to up the odds that a new up trend is in place.
The Bollinger bands stayed tight all day, but are now trending downwards, there was also an interesting relationship going on with the black trendline, which was acting as support this morning before it gave way, then turned to resistance for the second half of the day.
After the Close, The Dollar strengthened today pushing down commodities and holding the equities market flat, to slightly down. Alcoa did beat after the bell, but only because revisions pushed down estimates to such low levels over the last couple of months, it was hard not to beat. Estimates where at 17 cents before being pushed down to 5 cents with 9 cents being the actual number released after the bell.
Still to early to tell if we have a bottom of some sort in the Dollar, which most likely would indicate a top in commodities and equities. All three are ripe for reversals and are running in extreme over sold/bought territory.
The short-term trend on the SPX is still up until it starts making lower lows down at 1131.87, but did make a lower low over yesterdays price action.
Breadth closed at 1.17:1, decliners on really low volume, 0.915B on the NYSE.
The Trend Finder is still at neutral, with the short-term indicators whip-sawing back and forth without staying in one position long enough to trigger a signal. The longer term indicators are still bullish, but are weak and closing in on a neutral reading.

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