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Monday, October 11, 2010

Monday updates!!!

11:18, The SPX broke below the short-term trendline of support, also the Bollinger bands have tightened back-up, still early to tell if this will result in a larger move to the downside.
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7:31, The SPX made a higher high this morning keeping the trend up, but this rally is weak, and tired with the odds of a dramatic turn-around high and could occur at any moment. The Squiggles look like a repeating series of ending diagonals each one degree smaller. Resistance is at 1173.57 from a previous high, and first support is from a minor low at 1151.41. 7:14, The number of new 52 week highs are going in the wrong direction if this is a sustainable rally. September the 20th saw the number of stocks making new 52 week highs over 280, and now that number is down to 128 stocks making new highs, while at the same time the NYSE has rallied higher. Fewer stocks are participating in this rally, another sign momentum is waning and the uptrend is in serious jeopardy.
The down-sloping Red channel line is now coming into play and could provide the resistance necessary to cap this rally. The indicators are in over-bought territory but have yet rolled over to a sell.
6:45, The VIX opened gap down,also breaking out of the Bollinger bands and the triangle, very possible that this move was a throw-under and will quickly reverse recapturing the Bollinger bands. This could be the final move of the corrective triangle for the VIX, the last gasp before changing to a new uptrend, 24.52 is the level the VIX would need to break above to make a higher high.

2 comments:

  1. it's a bit hard for me to tell from your chart so i am curious at what spx level would you consider that upper channel trendline (on the large descending channel from the april high) to have been broken?

    that seems to be the definitive marker that shoudl settle the question of whether we have been correcting in a bear market or are in a new bull market.

    ReplyDelete