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Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Tuesday, After the close updates!!!

BKX is certainly not as bullish looking as the SPX with the last two weeks trending down, as the SPX was trading higher, and not even been able to make a decent higher high since its low four weeks ago keeping the longer term trend down also. It is hard to have a sustainable rally in the equities market with-out all sectors participating.
The big news of the day was GOLD!!!
Gold did close above $1300 an ounce, making a new all-time high, so instead of just posting a straight-up gold chart that will undoubtedly be posted all over the Internet today, how about a twelve year chart showing the ratio of the SPX and Gold. The SPX, priced in Gold is not a pretty sight since the highs back in early 2000, just imagine what the SPX would look like if we still had the Gold standard, long-term bullish investors would not be jumping up and down as they are now.
The SPX stayed ranged bound with a slightly higher high made near the close, keeping the trend up. The most notable point on the chart is that the MACD and RSI are still diverging and trending down supporting the 4th wave count, once the 5th wave gets going in earnest, these indicators should break-out to the upside, until then odds are still favoring the SPX continuing in a 4th wave triangle. 4th waves are the markets way of relieving over-bought conditions by staying range bound in a consolidating pattern that helps clear the way for a 5th wave up.
Upside targets for this 5th wave are still in the 1158-73 range.
Any break below 1122.79 would be a huge warning for the bulls that the uptrend might have concluded and the SPX is in a new phase. There is a chunk of support at 1117.51 and 1116.35 from the 200 and the 20 day MA's. And for resistance, the 200 week MA is currently at 1199, which would be pushing the limits for labeling this as a corrective rally.
Breadth finished the day running at 2.43:1, advancers, weak, but on a slight uptrend over the last four days.
The Trend Finder is still whip-sawing with the longer-term signals 75% bullish, and the short-term signals 75% bearish, leaving the other 50% not able to confirm any signals. BTW, that does add up to 200% because we are working with two sets, short, and long term.

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