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Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Wednesday updates

In just another sign that we are most likely in a new downtrend, the Summation Index printed its first red bar for the last six weeks, if this follows-thru and accelerates to the downside tomorrow odds are very good that the rally is finished for now!!!
The Dollar managed to close back into the green bullish Fib fan, after breaking out of the blue bearish fan this morning.
Next spot of resistance now is up in the $83.10 range from two different 38.2% retracement levels.
Notice all the indicators on the daily chart have gone bullish, the MACD rolled over to a buy and the RSI and STO are on a full buy!!!
The VIX is knocking on the door of the last bearish Fib fan line, something which would hold will be good for the bulls, one of the few charts I have seen late today where the bulls still have something on their side.
After the close, The SPX nose-dived today printing a very large red candle and doing some serious damage to the bullish trend. Including closing below the 20, 50, and 200 day MA's on the weekly, and below the 20 and 200 on the daily, leaving the 50 day as the only major moving average for support, at 1087.97. Breadth for the day was also the highest ratio seen in awhile for the decliners at 5.97:1, on an incredible 97.15% of the total volume accounting as sell volume, very bearish, and numbers we have not seen since late June.
Needless to say, but the up-trend is in very serious problems, and most likely has finished. I was waiting for a break below the last important low made back on July 19th at 1088.01 for an official call on a new downtrend. One very piece of bad news for the bulls was the SPX never did make that higher high back at 1131.23, that will now become a spot of heavy resistance with a few closes slightly below that level.
The Trend Finder had all of its short-term indicators go bearish at the open, leaving only the longer-term ones bullish, and those are all on daily charts that have not been updated yet. I am expecting at least one, to go bearish, and will update when Stockcharts does. As of now, it is at 50% bearish.
Levels tomorrow for support are the all important low of 1088.01, followed by the 50 day MA at 1087.97, and 1084, which is the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the July 1st low and the high made earlier this week.
Resistance now starts at 1102.22, the 50 week MA, 1103.97, the 20 day, 1115.57, the 200 day, and finally the 20 week MA at 1116.19.
On the count, I still do not believe the final 5th wave of this sell-off is in, possible that the cash SPX has missed a set of 1-2's, I say that because the RSI normally will hit its extremes on the iii of 3 wave, and today, that is where I have the 3rd labeled, not the iii of 3rd, so we may still have not even started the 4th wave yet.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
9:31, Now there is enough data available to place another set of bearish Fib fans, note, the SPX has no short-term bullish support on the Fib fans now!!!
8:19, A big development for BKX, it has broke thru support of the long-term bullish Fib fan that goes all the way back to March '09, this is bearish, BTW, this chart of BKX, with the Fib fans is my favorite chart because BKX has respected the Fib fans for many months with-out any adjustments, the only thing that has changed is when I added the blue, bearish set of fans.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
8:06, I cleaned up this chart and removed a few labels that were no longer needed (Stockcharts has a limited number of annotations, and I was maxed out on this chart). This is the bearish option. There is still an open gap down around the 1070 level if the SPX can break below 1088.01 and make another lower low. The trend is down now that the SPX has made a lower low.
7:43, Just to keep the bears honest I have a bullish count going, with the SPX now in a 2nd wave down, something to be aware of. Bears need to look at both sides!!!!
7:26, If the Dollar can break above $82, it would free itself from the bearish fans, and recapture the bullish one, currently the Dollar is at $81.85. *Note, I had to add that last black bar by hand because Stock charts does not have inter-day data for the Dollar.
7:21, This is the updated chart of the Euro I posted yesterday after it broke the trendline of support, it is now in a free-fall.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:15, With that gap down open the SPX dropped down to support of the bearish Fib fan. It would be a huge event for the bears to recapture this fan moving next support down to 1050!!!!
The bulls where never able to take out 1131.23 and make that higher high, that alone is a bearish sign!!!
7:11, The VIX also opened with a gap, gap up above the old trendline of resistance, nest spot of resistance is now up around the $28 level, from the last trendline from the top.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
6:57, The bears took the ball this morning and opened the SPX gap down, with a lower low that broke below 1107.17, leaving the next previous low at 1088.01 next support. Also the SPX took at support of the 200, and 20 day Moving Averages which are at 1115.62, and 1104.42, respectively, leaving only the 50 day as support at 1088.15. All of this was done on high Breadth, which currently is running 9.31:1, decliners, VERY bearish!!!!
The Trend Finder switch over the 50% bearish at the open.

1 comment:

  1. Hello everyone, in my study the motion passed to bear in 1106

    analysis on: