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Monday, August 9, 2010

Monday updates

The Summation Index continues to track higher.
The Dollar did have a positive day, and printed a black candle, but still remains trapped in the bearish Fib fan.
Today did get the award for the lowest volume of the year, even surpassing the day before holiday week-ends.
After the close, The SPX inched higher today, making a higher high but on extremely weak volume. It will be interesting to see how volume ends up closing after they get the numbers finalized, but as of now the numbers are extremely low.
1131.23 remains resistance, and the SPX seems to be having a very hard time breaking thru this level. Since the SPX did make that higher high today, this wave up could be completed, or is very close to doing so. Normally an ED will have a throw-over above the trendline before reversing hard, but the way the SPX is going, it might not have the mojo to do so.
Breadth ended the day at 2.63:1, advancers which is not very strong and is well below the readings this rally had earlier.
1107.17 is the magic number for the bears, as a break below here will be an important development marking a lower low, and confirming a new down trend is happening. A break below 1115 will be an early warning that the uptrend is in trouble, as that is currently trendline support.
For the bulls, breaking above 1131.23 and making that important higher high would be bullish as well, leaving 1173.57 as the next important high.
The Trend finder did change to 50% bullish this morning, mainly from two short-term trading signals, the longer term signals are still mixed, so caution at this point is warranted for the bulls.
10:17, The SPX has been making higher highs for the last month, while the BKX was making lower highs, after its high back on July 14th. The BKX is not the only index that is failing to keep up with the SPX, the Russell has not made a higher high since August 27th. With-out all the indexes participating in this rally, odds are really increasing that this rallying is falling apart because you need all cylinders firing to have a healthy bull market. The strongest index has been large caps, with Financials and small caps trailing, normally a sign of the smart money looking for safety, that also is evidenced with the yields on treasuries that have been heading down to record lows. Risk is not worth the rewards at this time, and investors are willing to give-up rewards for the safety of large caps, and treasuries.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!! 9:04, I hope this chart is not too confusing, it is missing some labels on purpose to keep it from becoming even more confusing. There are three different counts going on, and you can check them out in the two charts below.
1107.17 is resistance, and a break below this level would most likely signal that all the counts have finished, and the rally is over, with a new down trend in place.

8:56, This is the least bullish option going right now, with the SPX in the 5th wave of the "C" wave up.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
8:38, 1131.23 is still resistance for the SPX.
8:00, The trend finder had two sell signals change over to buys, leaving the over-all trend now at 50% bullish.
If anybody is having problems logging into the new CiL, or does not want to reveal their information to the public, please e-mail me, I can get you set-up manually!!!

1 comment:

  1. Hello, the swing is bullish, if break in 1101 is bearish

    the analyse is my blog: