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Friday, August 6, 2010

Friday updates

The Summation Index remains in a bullish trend, but momentum is starting to wane, suggesting a little more upside possible, with an increasing chance of a trend change on the horizon.
After the close, Breadth never did come through today to support the sell-off this morning, and was key early on that this sell-off was not standing on all its legs (post at 7:50), the best probability was that it was part of the "B" wave, and we still have the odds pointing to a leg up higher, especially since it is impossible to get a decent count on the start of an impulse wave down. This really turned into a range bound week, that must of got the bears excited this morning, but there never was any confirmation a top was put in besides a minor lower low.
Breadth ended the day at 1.16: decliners, pretty much flat, considering the size of today's bounce.
Tomorrow morning I will have a post with quite a few charts with all the support and resistance levels, as well as a few Fib fan charts to get ready for Monday morning, enjoy your week-end!!!!
7:50, The SPX so far has not filled that gap from the open, and now is in full sell mode, leaving the possibility that a top was put in at 1128.75, 1088.01 still needs to get taken out to eliminate the "B" wave option. Currently breadth is not confirming this move, and is only running 3:1.
The Dollars rapid descent has stalled, as it has been consolidating for the last couple of days, but as long as it remains in that bearish fan, the trend is down, it needs to break-out to the upside and get out of that bearish fan for any hope of a recovery
The BKX still has not made a higher high this rally, this could be one of the first index's to really show the signs of a break-down, BTW, the Russell chart is not much different then this one.
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7:11, The previous high on the SPX has been one tough cookie to break thru.
The 200 day MA on the VIX still has its resistance qualities this morning. Currently the high of the day on the VIX is 23.35, while the 200 day MA is 23.40. The same thing is going on with the SPX, with the 200 day MA at 1115.15 is acting as support, the LOD on the SPX was 1115.29.
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7:00, I have seen this time and again with the SPX head-faking with a quick burst out of the Bollinger Bands then immediately recapturing them just to head the opposite direction.
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6:57, until the SPX breaks the channel, and takes out the previous low of 1088.01, this most likely is still part of the "B" wave with one more wave left to finish-up this rally.

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