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Friday, August 20, 2010

Friday updates and OPEX magic!!!!

After the close, Very possible that we had another Hindenburg Omen today, the number of new highs and lows both qualify, only problem is the requirement for the 10 week MA of the NYSE is driving me bonkers, the rule is that it must be trending upwards, and in the longer term it is, right now it is flat-lined and might have a very small downward hook on it the in the extreme short-term (the last 2-3 days) saying it is trending downwards. In the end it does not really matter because all the other requirements are saying the market is unhealthy and out of balance.
The number of possibilities on the short-term counts are also growing, with multiple ways of labeling this sell-off, I did post the one count I give the best odds for, although those odds are not overwhelmingly high. This one would give a retrace back up to the 1080 level to put another 2nd wave in, but would require the SPX to make a minor higher high, and the way things are going the market is having troubling trying to do that, as it continues to print lower highs, and lows.
Breadth closed at 1.40:1, decliners, low enough to suggest that downside momentum has waned, and a 2nd wave retrace is in the works. Since it is Friday, and most people have already bailed-out for the day, I will keep this post quick and simple, and spend my time working on a larger post for the week-end, instead of adding to this post tonight.
9:27, The SPX is close to testing its long-term trendline of support, the Russell already failed, and broke below its trendline, as well as the DAX and BKX. A break here opens another door for the SPX to test its low down at 1010!!!
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
9:20, As long as the SPX continues to make lower highs, and lows the series of 1-2's down remains a viable count.
8:31, The Russell has decisively broke below the long-term trendline, another point for the bears.
8:13, The VIX is knocking on the door of trendline resistance, a break-up here would be huge for the bears, but if it holds, there is hope for the bulls.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
8:04, The SPX is buried in a series of bearish short-term Fib fans, with no bullish ones in sight!!!
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:40, The best two options I see on the squiggles this morning is that the SPX is working on a 5th wave now, or for a very bearish alternative, has been building a series of 1-2's. The SPX did make a lower low today keeping that trend heading down with next major support from a previous low down at 1056.88. If the series of 1-2's are in play we should see breadth steadily increasing as the meat of the 3rd wave approaches.


  1. Thank you very much, Michael. Very good Blog and excellent analysis.

    Have a nice weekend,


  2. Michael, wikipedia is reporting another HO confirm today. Looking at your charts this appears to be true, can you confirm???