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Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Tuesday updates

In order to now find any of the major Moving Averages that could provide support you need to go all the way up to a monthly chart, where the 20 month MA is the only support left, at 998.41. Notice the MACD is starting to curl, and the Histogram is very close to printing a red bar with the RSI and STO now on a full sell.
Something I never noticed before was the 20 month MA never did cross above the 50 month MA during the hope rally, guess that might mean it was a bear market rally :)
The yields in the longer-term bonds are taken a beating, but still not near the level of panic selling seen in the last 3rd wave down back in '08
Interesting chart of the TRIN, the last time the averages were up and all bunched together was during the large sell-off back in '08, during the 3rd wave down, notice how they are again bunching up at even higher levels this time? P3?
The Summation Index is still accelerating to the downside, it will normally consolidate before reversing during a larger trend change
Gold is clearly out of the channel now into an impulsive sell-off. Next target 1066.50.
After the close, That was an interesting day, right after the open the markets were advancing on 8:1 breadth with 92% buy volume, which normally would be very bullish, but as the day wore on the markets took most of that back, and the Russell even made a new low for the day. Hard to tell which way would be best to label the SPX, as the ES-Minis made a new low after hours, and the Russell made a new low near the close, so I am sticking with the most bearish interpretation that the SPX did finish the 1st wave down on July 1st, and all the movement since that low was part of the 2nd wave up, but I am by no means ruling out that the SPX was in a 4th wave, or even another count that I do not have going, there are just too many ways to count the various indexes. The SPX is either starting one of the strongest impulse waves of the entire sell-off, or we are going to consolidate for a bit longer. It will be a no-brainer if we have indeed the start of the iii of 3rd wave down. For now, caution is warranted until the counts clarify themselves.
Breadth for the day ended flat as a pancake at 1.02:1, decliners, so far, buying the dips have been suicide for the bulls.
Upside levels are still 1048.08, which is the last minor high, and on the downside, support at 1010.91, followed by 991.97, the low made back in early September.
The Trend finder still has all signals on a sell, 100% bearish, but a strong bullish day most likely will trigger a couple of buys, and that would move it to 50% bearish.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:48, The long term Fib fan chart has resistance up around the 1050 level.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:23, The ES-Minis did make a new low overnight, but the SPX did not. The SPX either had a failed 5th, or the 5th was put in on July 1st, but either way, the SPX is now in a 2nd wave retrace.

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