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Monday, July 19, 2010

Monday updates

If the SPX can not hold 1025 on a sell-off, the next level of support is down in the 950- 975 range, well below the low from the begining of July (1010.91).
The Bollinger bands are really starting to get tight again, a sign that the market has been consolidating, and is close to breaking out in a larger move.
After the close, The count is starting to come together now that we have a correction to Friday's sell-off, and that most likely would be either a 2nd wave, or a "B" wave, with still a slight chance that it could be a 4th wave. With the way the RSI bottomed, it does give the 4th wave some legs, but there is not a 2nd wave visible.
Breadth ended at only 1.89:1, advancers, definitely not high enough to consider today's rally very bullish in the short-term.
The SPX did make a lower low this morning but closed above the 20 day MA which was at 1069.29. The 50 day is still resistance up at 1089.09 as is the trendline that is coming down from the high made in late April. Support is still the 20 day MA with a break below 1058.24 making another major short-term lower low, with the biggie down at 1010.91, where the SPX would make a new low for the year.
The trend does remain bearish for the short-term, but the SPX could still make it back close to the 1100 range in a 2nd wave, although that would be very unlikely. The most likely spot would be in the 1075-80 range, which is in the 38- 50% retracement range, with the 62% near 1085 nearing the far end of the range that would keep the odds in favor of a 2nd wave.
The Trend Finder remains 25% bullish, with 5 of the indicators showing buy signals, and 3 displaying sell signs.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:07, Hopefully we can start getting some clarity on the short-term counts today, after Friday's uncountable mess.

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