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Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Wednesday updates


In my spare time I love playing around with different charts, tweaking time frames and playing with all the goodies, looking for that next magical chart, LOL!!!
Here is my latest one, a monthly McClellan Oscillator, I would of never thought that it would be so fast on a monthly scale. I found that a simple reading of black being bullish, and red, bearish. Even thought it is trending up at the present time, it still is bearish for the indexes until crossing that center-line.

If Copper is leading the indexes, there is a lot of catching-up to do. Copper, does have a decent history of acting as a leading index, not 100%, but more usefull, then not.


The Summation Index is still bearish, and trending down, but not at a rapid pace, it definitely has decelerated since the middle of May, but as long as it keeps printing red bars, the trend remains down.


The Bears can not afford to drop the ball tomorrow, this chart is on the verge of going Bullish, it already has some divergence in it, but there is still room to make a lower low. When the 20 day MA crosses over the price action, it will confirm that the trend is back to Bullish.





After the close, WOW, that was a perfect text-book example of a 2nd wave retrace, the only reasonable bullish possibility I see is that this sell-off today could be counted as a "X" wave, with another set of a-b-c's to complete the 2nd wave, however, the odds are favoring a completed 2nd wave at this point. The only other way I can see a bullish count now, would be an expanding Leading Diagonal from the low of 1040.78, and that would be a rare pattern, and since Elliott Wave is based on probabilities and using the count with higher odds as a primary count, I just do not see that happening at this point.
I lowered the line for changing the trend to neutral, down to todays high at 1077.74. The next two levels of support for the trend are at 1042.17, and 1040.78, both of which would further confirm the downtrend.
Breadth for the day ended at 1.06:1, Advancers, and yes, it was advancers. Much flatter then I was expecting after the way the market sold-off, hence, the option of a double zig-zag for the 2nd wave up does have some legs until we break-down and take out that low at 1040.78.
This week will be interesting for the larger term count, we either make a new low and complete the 5th wave of the leading diaganol, reverse and start retracing the WHOLE sell-off in a large degree 2nd wave, or we flat out go into a major sell-off in the iii of 3 down wave. There should be quite a few signs that will help distinguish between those two options, with breadth and sell volume numbers leading the list.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:11, The SPX has now reached the minimum retracement level of 38% for a normal wave 2, if it does start to surpass the 62% level, above 1080.88, something more bullish might be happening. The larger trend is still down, but if we break above the old high at 1105.67, the trend will go to neutral. But before we get to that point, the SPX is going to have a lot of resistance to break-thru ( see my "After the Close" post from yesterday). With yesterdays internals very weak, and the action so far today the same, I still see no strong bullish moves that would jeopardize the longer-term down trend, BTW, Breadth for the day is running below 3:1 advancers. Low breadth numbers, along with the low volume is more suggestive of a correction, then the start of a new larger-term bullish trend.


Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:08, The SPX is testing the last short-term bearish fib fan.

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