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Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Tuesday updates

The SPX closed right on support from the bearish Fib fans, bears need to recapture that fan!!!
After the close, we did have some follow-thru to yesterday's bearish mood finishing with a day that did have sell volume accounting for 92.46% of the total volume, and with breadth closing at 3.94:1, decliners, that is bearish, not to mention the SPX also made a lower low, and closed below the 200 day MA, and was very close to testing support of the 20 day MA at 1088.97.
None of my indicators on my trend gauge changed today, but two of them are very close to giving a sell signal, and any sell-off tomorrow will most likely trigger both of them, and move the current 50% bullish trend, to neutral, or 100% cash. The Bullish trend is now in jeopardy, the bears just need another day of follow-thru.
Odds are good, that the rally from the low of 1042.17 is completed, but the SPX has not yet tipped its hand if the 2nd wave up is completed, or leaving this sell-off as the start of the "B" of 2 wave. I did post the count above for this option, which is the more bullish option, the bearish option of course would be the 2nd wave up completed, and we are at the beginning stages of the 3rd wave down. If we are in the start of the 3rd wave down, there should be little doubt as the SPX should really start to accelerate downwards, in an impulsive fashion, quickly taking out the low, and putting up even more bearish volume and breadth numbers as it advances. Or , we get back to the over-lapping corrective mess we have been in for the last couple of weeks, with a mix of bullish and bearish days as the SPX traces out this "B" wave, before heading higher in the "C" of 2 wave. Today's move can easily be counted as an a-b-c from the top, as well as the beginnings of an impulse wave so tomorrow will be very important in terms of the structure coming off of the high.
Besides the 20 day MA at 1088.97, there is also support at 1090.51 from the 50 week MA, and at 1089.03 support from the previous low. It will be interesting to see the daily charts from Stockcharts this afternoon(after their are updated), to see how much more technical damage was done today, and if there is anything of importance, I will post them ASAP.

Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
8:16, I added a set of bearish Fib fans, if the bears can keep the price with-in these, there is hope this sell-off will continue.

Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
8:07, This sell-off is acting much more corrective then impulsive. Still hard to say if we did have a top in, and it was only the A of 2 wave, and we are now in the B of 2, or we are still working on the original wave up, that still has the final "c" wave to go, for a higher high.

1 comment:

  1. Thanks Mike for sharing all your hard work. You are constantly keep me out of trouble.:-)