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Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Tuesday updates

After the close, A total melt-down at the close, with small caps getting hammered the hardest, the Russell finishing down 3.12%, and the SPX closing beneath the 50 week MA which was at 1078.45. The SPX still did not make any significant higher highs, or lower lows, leaving the trend neutral for now. The short-term counts are still cloudy right now with all the corrective over-lapping waves, but if we break lower and follow-through with this selling tomorrow it might be possible to count this as an expanded Leading Diagonal, and if not, this corrective mess would fit as a "X" wave with higher highs to come. Breaking below 1065.59 would be huge for the bears, by making a lower low, and voiding the triple zig-zag, but it would still leave the bullish count on the table, where it stays until the SPX breaks below 1040.78.
Breadth for the day was only 3.72:1, decliners, but it was on an incredible bearish 91.74% sell volume.
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9:28, Updated the Fib fan chart with a set of bearish fans. Todays squiggles are now a mess to count out with all the over-lapping waves since Friday morning's top at 1103.52, just too many possibilities right now, with no one option standing out.

7:43, One thing the bears do have going for them is the VIX is still in the bullish Fib fan. BTW, The 1-2 count on the squiggles did get eliminated after the 4th wave entered the territory of the 1st on the one minute chart.

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7:01, Support from the 50 week MA has so far acted as support at 1078.62.

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6:51, Three possible options going on here, the most bearish would be the 1-2 down, now in the 3rd wave down with much more downside to come today, followed by the sell-off this morning nearly complete as a "X" wave of the larger triple zig-zag. and finally the bullish count, which would have the SPX in its 2nd wave down. Until we have more price action to eliminate some of the possibilities all three short-term options are on the table.

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