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Thursday, June 17, 2010

Thursday updates

The SPX never made it back inside that last bearish fan today, not a good sign for the bears, upside resistance now is up around the 1175 level, OUCH!!!
After the close, The SPX spent a second day trading in the same range and that usually means it is consolidating before the price moves back to the same direction as it was before the consolidation started, in this case, up. Consolidation normally gives the indicators time to burn off their extreme conditions, clearing the way for the price to continue in its longer term trend.
Trying to get an accurate short-term count going is still useless with all the different ways a complex corrective wave can turn-out in the end, and with the many different ways to read the squiggles we have so far. So, for me, it is best just to wait until I can get a count going that I have confidence in, instead of just posting short-term counts that in most likely-hood, never play out as planned. It is just a guessing game right now and is doing no service to anyone to post counts under these conditions.
With all the over-lapping waves coming up from the bottom from 1042.17, odds do favor a corrective count , over an impulsive count, and we still do have some things to work with. The Fib retracement levels are still showing plenty of room for this wave to move to the upside before it gets to the point, that odds start to drop that a 2nd wave is the most probable. The 61% level is where this happens, and that is all the way up at 1151, and IF the leading diaganol is the correct count, the normal retracement would be even higher, closer to the 78% level. Right now the biggest question, Is this still just the "A" wave of 2 in a simple A-B-C zig-zag , or is it going to be a complex correction such as a double zig-zag for the whole 2nd wave and we are closing in on the end of that 2nd wave? The next large sell-off will be very important in determining that, either a corrective, over-lapping sell-off that would have the characteristics of a "B" wave, or an impulsive wave complete with some large gaps, and few over-lapping waves.
Breadth for the day finished at 1.01:1, enough said there, a flat day!!!!
Important level continue to be the same as yesterdays, and hopefully we will have some good movements tomorrow, since it is OPEX, that will help to clarify the short term counts, but until then , the trend still remains UP!!!!
After Stockcharts updates their daily charts, if there is anything of interest, I will post them later this afternoon.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:30, The SPX is starting to break-down, a good sell for the bears would be that center channel line being breached, and ultimately, the bottom channel.
7:22, I was caught by surprise this morning when going thru the charts that the Russell is still caught in the down channel, and never did break above the upper trendline. The move this morning might have something to it, as it did break below the lower short-term (gray) channel line.
7:10, The Bollinger bands are tightening up again, and that usually suggest a large move is in the near term future.

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