New Web-site!!!

Primary web-site now for EW Trends and Charts

We have moved!!!

There is now a NEW Web-site for EW Trends and Charts, the new web-site is the primary site for this blog and this site is only a back-up site now. If you are a fellow blogger, please adjust your links for the new site!!!!

Click here to view the new web-site for EW Trends and Charts

Monday, June 7, 2010

Monday Updates

Here are the two most likely counts, I think the RSI might be very helpful in finding which count is right. During this next wave down, if the RSI makes a lower reading then it did on the 1st wave down, odds will favor that it is in a 3rd wave, that is the 1-2, 1-2, count, and it would most likely diverge for the Leading Diagonal count, that is, NOT make a lower low.
The Summation Index, is starting to accelerate downwards after a brief period of consolidation last week, confirming that the longer term trend is down.

This chart provides another example that short-term investors were fleeing to safety today, as yields on the 1 month dumped!!!!

The McClellan Oscillator turned bearish once again, a full confirmation would be breaking below the -50 level, where the green horizontal line is. Also, the indicators have rolled over to a sell.

The Dollar is VERY close to making a new high at 89.62, and if the count is right, it should be no problem do so. The bad news is that it also can be counted as an extended 5th, that is just about completed. (replace my blue i, ii, with a blue 3, 4)

This is an old chart with a set of channel lines that have been fairly well respected in the past, not a good sign for the bulls, having the SPX close beneath the lower line!!!

The SPX is now on a critical level of Fib fan support, and also back into the most bearish part of the blue Fib fan, if this gives way, next support would be down around the 1000 level!!!

After the close, WOW, things are now starting to get interesting, if the count above is correct, tomorrow could be a very ugly day. The only problem I see in the above count, is I am not 100% confident that the last set of 1-2's (blue, i, and ii) are set in the correct spot, with Fridays sell-off, there were a lot of over lapping waves, and it is quite possible I labeled the 3rd and 4th wave too early, and we have just now completed a full five waves down for the blue "i", meaning tomorrow we could get a bounce for the second wave up (blue ii). The main concern I have with the way I have it labeled now, is the 2nd wave only retraced 22.64%, that is a very shallow retracement for a 2nd wave but at the same time, would be characteristic of a 2nd wave retrace right before a very powerful 3rd wave down.
Breadth for the day ended at 2.73:1, which is not as bearish as I would like to see for the start of a 3rd wave down. The SPX, did however break below another level of support from the low back on May 25th, leaving just one level of support from the last major rally, the biggie, at 1040.78.

8:51, In what could be a prelude to the Death Cross, (the 50 day MA crossing the 200 day MA), the 20 day MA crossed over the 200 day MA this morning!!!

Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
8:36, If that was it for the 5th wave down, then the upside targets for the 2nd wave up would be in the 1076-86 range. Still looking for a channel break to confirm that five full waves were completed.

Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
6:57, The SPX might of possibly put in the 5th wave in the over-night futures market, as the futures were down to 1052 at one point, before reversing higher for the SPX cash open.

Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
6:47, The SPX is still with-in the most recent short-term bear fan.

5 comments:

  1. Hi Michael

    I appreciate your work.

    Today you are asking yourself
    "I am not 100% confident that the last set of 1-2's (blue, i, and ii) are set in the correct spot, with Fridays sell-off, there were a lot of over lapping waves, and it is quite possible I labeled the 3rd and 4th wave too early"

    Take a look at this, maybe it will help.

    http://steven737.typepad.com/blog/2010/06/price-action-06042010.html.html

    also
    "Breadth for the day ended at 2.73:1, which is not as bearish as I would like to see for the start of a 3rd wave down. "

    maybe the 3rd has not started yet!
    I think that we are still in minor 3 of 1

    http://steven737.typepad.com/blog/2010/06/esspx-analysis-and-projections-06072010.html.html

    Take a look and let me know of your comments

    cheers :)

    ReplyDelete
  2. correct links:

    http://steven737.typepad.com/blog/2010/06/price-action-06042010.html

    and

    http://steven737.typepad.com/blog/2010/06/esspx-analysis-and-projections-06072010.html

    ReplyDelete
  3. Michael;

    Hello again;

    Have you established (or know of) any pattern or bellwether so as to expect that a wave 3 will expand?

    cheers :)

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Michael

    I appreciate your work.
    you are one of my favorite sites put you My Blog List
    You have twitter?
    1062 key number weekly chart
    http://followmarketrend.blogspot.com/2010/06/spx-weekly-market-thought-07062010.html
    Expect more damage coming session first target 1021. Expect the same pattern again so 998 is my best thought short-term
    http://followmarketrend.blogspot.com/2010/06/spx-daily-market-thought-08062010.html

    ReplyDelete
  5. steven, My best indicator for something like that would be the RSI, I am really curious how it behaves on the next wave down,I will post a chart for you with the RSI.

    ReplyDelete