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Friday, June 4, 2010

Friday updates

Not to be a spoiler on one of the best days the bears have put together lately, but the bullish count is still alive and needs to be kept on the radar until the bears can break that low. With the way the market has been swinging back and forth over the last couple of weeks, this Bullish chart is definitely not out of the question, just yet!!!
After the close, What an exciting day, but also a very exhausting one. The Bears must of known their backs were against the walls, because they came out swinging, and never quit. There was some serious damage done to the bulls today, and, like I keep repeating, the bears NEED to follow through on this move come Monday.
The sell-off does channel very good for an impulse wave down, but I do not like all those over-lapping waves in the middle of the iii of 3 down wave, there was never a point of recognition, or large gaps after the initial gap down at the open. The good news for the count, is the RSI does a great job of confirming it with the extreme reading for the iii of 3rd wave, and slightly diverging for the 3rd, itself.
Breadth for the day ended at a strong 9.56:1, decliners, but the sell volume was an incredible 99.14% of the total volume, I am not sure if that is a one day record, but I have never seen numbers this high!!!!
The trend is now bearish after the SPX made two lower lows, and the next one up, is the biggie, 1040.78. On the upside, the SPX would start making higher highs at 1105.67.
BTW, the SPX did close below the 50 week MA, that was at 1078.31
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
11:43, The SPX broke below 1069.89, making a lower low, and moving the trend back the bearish. If this count is correct, the SPX has NO business up around the 1075 level at this point.
Current Breadth, 9.44:1, decliners, on an amazing 98.51% of the total volume being, sell volume!!!
8:51, The Euro broke below $1.20 this morning!!!
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:47, The bears need to keep the SPX with-in most recent short-term fib fan now, if it breaks out, to the upside, the bulls will have the ball back!!! Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:25, Bears need to close the deal, as this is likely their last chance before the majority of the TA charts goes bullish. The SPX has been in limbo since the initial spike down at the open.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
6:44, The bears need to break this trendline, and take out the low at 1069.89 to invalidate this count!!!!
Breadth is currently running 15.07:1, this also needs to increase during the day to give some hope back to the bears case.


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  2. Great stuff. I note you have the late Thursday high of 1103.95 as a possible 'truncated 5th". It came to my attention the EW has pointed out that the overnight futures did make it up to 1107.50 and thus no truncated 5th....

    Also, another alt count I saw (maybe here) makes today's lows the bottom of the B wave instead of last Wed's 1069.87...making that wave B an irregular 'abc' but it works! C wave then targets 1123 (c=a) or possibly truncates at 1099 (c=.618xa)

    Another Alt that might fly would be wave A finishing at 1090.75 on the 26th and then B would be an expanding megaphone ABCDE, where E finished at the lows today or will Monday. This count would also allow a C wave up to follow, targeting 1110.47 (c=a).

    With the crazy volatility of late, I rule nothing out, no matter how low the probability.
    Keep up the good work! Sent a small donation.

  3. Thank-you Ga, Yes, I agree, there are too many ways to count out the last couple of weeks, and until we break down below 1040.78, the bears need to be aware they are not out of the woods yet!!!