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Thursday, May 6, 2010

Thursday updates

Could it be?
This is the first time in the last couple of years we are this close to having all pieces of the puzzle in place to satisfy the requirements of the Hindenburg Omen.
Today we have new 52 week lows at 161.
and new highs at 36.
Uptrending 10 MA on the weekly NYSE.
And the MO negative.
A slight movement of the new highs, and lows would trigger the omen.
To read more about the omen, click here- The Hindenburg Omen.
I posted this count on the Dollar last week, and nobody even responded, now it looks very possible that we are indeed in a 3rd wave up. BTW, the last blank candle I had to add by hand because Stockcharts does not yet have their daily charts updated, I put it as close as possible to where it should be, and will update later this evening.

After the close, For all of you that have been asking what a P3 down would be like, you got your preview today, total chaos, traders not being able to get their brokers on the phone, Internet connections to all the on-line brokers jambed, bid/ask prices not triggering, all with the retail investor getting the short end of the stick.
I have no idea how to label this mess, when I posted that 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 count this morning, I was not expecting this large of a sell-off, close to 100 points on the SPX at one point. If there is ever going to be a real P3 down, this is definitely the way one would expect it to start off. This should be a large warning to the bulls, that all those gains you have made in the last few months can be wiped out in minutes.
If we have any sort of follow-thru with the overseas markets overnight, that carries on thru to our markets in the morning, this could really turn ugly tomorrow, breaking below the lows of today, and possibility be the start of that P3 wave down.
Breadth for the day ended at 17.46:1, where at one point was over 32:1, decliners. This is very bearish when the market has these broad-based sell-offs, combined with the large volume numbers we had today. This should be enough to make any investor very nervous.
Needless to say, the trend remains down until we start making higher highs, and with the sell-off today, I am not even sure at what point would be the place to start those higher highs from, so i will stick with 1167.25 that was posted earlier.

12:06, never thought I would see this today!!!!
11:56, WOW!!!!!!

Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
11:20, WARNING!!!! Breadth is at 13.43:1, decliners!!!!!
This is the type of numbers that a iii of 3 should have, we are now in a full fledged sell-off!!!
***11:29, updated breadth, now up to 16.09:1, these is numbers I have not seen for a couple of years!!!
**** 11:38, breadth now 22.70:1, and still increasing, this is finally a REAL broad-based sell-off!!!!
****11:45, breadth over 30:1!!!!!!!!!
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
10:46, The SPX has broke below the last fan of the shorter-term bullish Fib fan, and now is at the last support level of the med-term Fib fan line. If it does break out of the med-term fan, next, and last support for the longest-term Fib fan is down at the 1110-1115 level.
8:54, On the daily chart the SPX has broke out of the lower Bollinger band (1162.83) after breaking thru the 50 day MA, the MACD is in free-fall and now into negative territory. The STO and RSI have yet to bottom, let alone diverge. Not very bullish looking now!!!
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
8:38, I added another set of 1-2's in gray, next to the blue iii, and iv, after seeing the correction yesterday turned into a sharp correction, not sideways, and because the RSI on the daily chart has not yet bottomed, suggesting that we may not of had a iii of 3 wave completed yet. The SPX has no business above 1167.25 for this count. BTW, the trend does remain down as another lower low was made this morning.
** current breadth is 5.22:1, decliners!!!
8:03, I have never felt comfortable posting charts with nested sets of 1-2, 1-2, 1-2s, down because they never seem to work out. This would be the most optimistic bearish count, and it is a valid count on the Russell at this point, not so pretty on the SPX. I thought I would post it just in case we get a very large gap down in the next couple of trading days for the real meat of the 3rd wave. Breaking above ~709, making a higher high would invalidate this count.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:38, Updated the short-term Fib fans, and was also able to add a third set now there is enough data to do so, the SPX remains short-term bearish as long as it remains with-in these fans.


  1. Columbia I bet you had fun writing up today's close report. :-)

  2. Dear readers, yesterday said if an error, I'm not saying no, but I think something happened and maybe could have been a mistake and are more inclined to this version, but I was worried and cautious, which I will be mindful The next sittings.
    I'll leave here a case much worse with a devaluation worse. From what I found a book worthy enough for me the most recommended on bag, talk, Winning on the Stock Exchange of Fernando Braga de Matos.

    Then says:
    "Another crash of enormous relief was the October 1987 Wall Street, not just the violence of the fall (22.8% in a single day), but because it was probably triggered by computer programs, ordering vending-so concludes the Congressional committee appointed for this purpose. " It was therefore probably triggered directly by machinery and not by men. "

    As seen in the graph the SP was much lower two days and returned a few days after the direction was, it was a bull market