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Monday, May 24, 2010

Monday Updates

After the close, The SPX spent the majority of the day tracing out a series of corrective waves that were over-lapping, before finally selling-off it what appears to be an impulsive wave down to close at the low of the day. Those corrective waves do fit a 4th wave model just fine, and odds are favoring that we have started the 5th wave down, we just need to see a lower low to confirm the trend is still down. Breaking below 1070.68, would make that low, and would also lessen the odds that the move up from 1055.90 was a 1-2 up pattern, part of a bullish count. 1055.90, is the biggie that needs to be challenged for the 5th wave, and then 1044.50 is the next support on the downside.
Breadth for the day ended at 1.61:1, decliners. Not very bearish at all, but is consistent with the expected numbers from a 4th wave of consolidation.
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9:16, Strike one for the bearish count, it has broke out of the channel, but still has not made a higher high, 1095.09, will be strike two!!!!

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7:48, The SPX is still in the bearish fan, but in the most weakest part of it, with the most recent bullish set was short lived.

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7:38, The market still has not tipped its hand this morning on if we are going to get that one last wave down, before a 2nd wave retrace. Both bullish and bearish options have upside in them, just that the bearish option needs a more wave down to make nine waves complete for an impulsive wave.


  1. Mike
    How high does this wave you have labeled as 4 have to go for wave 5 down to be no longer in play?

  2. Morning Kim, 1114.96, is the point where the 4th wave would enter the price territory of the 1st wave, invalidating the count :)