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Thursday, April 29, 2010

Thursday updates

The Dollar is now either in a very bullish count, or this entire run up is a corrective "B" wave.
Updated BKX chart I showed the other day, the Fib fans held, and who says Fib fans dont work. There is a very nice, and interesting rare expanding wedge going on the BKX for the last couple of months, with no end in sight until a solid break below those Fib fans that are acting as support happenings, the trend will remain up.

After the close, We are now at an inflection point, with the indicators into over-bought territory, and rolling over to a sell position, both bearish, and bullish counts are calling for a sell-off, one just much larger then the other. So far the rally up off of 1181.62 looks more impulsive, and with the SPX retracing 72.65%, the odds are favoring the bullish option. Breaking above 1219.80 would invalidate the bearish count, and breaking below 1181.62, would invalidate the bullish count. The trend remains neutral until one of those levels are breached. Upside target are still in the 1125-1130 range, and the first downside target, at 38% retracement from 1181.62, would be at 1153.11.
Breadth for the day was a strong 3.11:1, advancers, not super bullish, but very a respectable number for this rally.
The squiggles are suggesting one more small wave up to complete a 5 wave count to finish this current wave that started yesterday, before a sell-off. This is where tomorrows wave structure will be important from the get go, will it be an over-lapping corrective wave for the 2nd wave down, or a very strong impulsive wave complete with some gaps for the start of the 3rd wave down that will leave no doubts in most peoples mind that a serious sell-off is ensuing. I am leaning toward the corrective wave 2 down, bullish count right now.
* The SPX did recapture the 20 day MA today!!!
** None of the open gaps where close on the VIX.

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11:02, The SPX has worked its way up to Fib fan resistance, this is something the bears need to hold, for the 1-2 down option to play out, breaking above just further reduces the odds of the bearish count, the DOW also has retraced over 79%, which also lessens the odds of a 2nd wave.(less then 13% of 2nd waves retrace over 62%)
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7:55, The SPX has stayed above the Bollinger bands all morning, very rare to see it stay outside of the bands this long, normally it quickly reverses to recapture the bands before continuing to move in the direction of the trend
7:48, The short-term VIX has gaps everywhere that are going to want to get filled here soon.

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7:30, The gap at the open pushed the SPX back into a more bullish Fibfan, where the upper corner would be 1125 if it stays between the current resistance of the trendline, and the support of the fanline. There are now NO bearish Fib fans at any level at this time.

1 comment:

  1. I still have Gann targets in the 1400 area for SPX and above 12,200 for the Dow. Possibility that this sideways action is a B wave as part of a triple three from the bear market low - the rise from February being an abc.

    Still bullish.

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