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Thursday, April 15, 2010

Thursday updates

Here is a look at the squiggles, for the SPX, and something that is really been bothering me. The run-up 1191, and the sell-off back down to 1175 just does fit very well in the picture of this current run-up from 1175, there seem to be two different channels, one for a 4th wave correction, and one for the impulsive wave up from 1175. Also the wave structure up to 1191 does not look super impulsive, but rather corrective and fitting in with the previous wave patterns. Time will tell, but for now I am keeping it on the Radar because if the 4th wave does belong at 1175, this current rally is going to surprise alot of EWers when it ends short. Theoretically, one more impulse up would finish the 5th wave if I relabel the counts to take this into consideration. COMMENTS?
Here is a shot of the VIX overlayed with the Fib fans where it is firmly stuck, and needs to break out for any sell-off in the indexes to get going. As long as the VIX is confined in these bearish fans, it is hard not to believe the indexes will continue their upwards push to higher highs.

That gray Fib fan is continuing to provide resistance as the SPX works its way up into a corner where the next break could be an important sign for determining which direction the trend will go.

After the close, We made another new high this morning keeping the trend up, and I believe that was the top of the iii of 3, 0f the 5th wave, with the rest of the day consolidating in a 4th wave triangle that should help burn off some of the short-term over-bought conditions, clearing the way for yet another run higher.
Breadth for the day was 1.06:1, decliners, another sign of consolidation and the makings for a boring day. Things could start getting interesting soon, with a volcano in Iceland shutting down air travel all across Europe, some banks reporting before the open, and OPEX Friday.

Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:55, The optional Ending Diagonal was invalidated on the SPX once it broke above 1212.89 this morning, leaving my prefered count, the extended 5th in play now. The trend remains up with targets from 1228-1235 for the 5th wave. (the exact numbers are laid out in yesterdays, after the closing post). Still there are no signs of a minor wave 4 developing on the counts. Any break below 1200 should be an alarm that something is not right with this count. 1200 marks the gap from the open yesterday, and the SPX has no business down below that level until a top has been put in.
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7:15, The SPX wasted no time making a new high this morning, and just keeps chugging upwards along the Fib line.

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