New Web-site!!!

Primary web-site now for EW Trends and Charts

We have moved!!!

There is now a NEW Web-site for EW Trends and Charts, the new web-site is the primary site for this blog and this site is only a back-up site now. If you are a fellow blogger, please adjust your links for the new site!!!!

Click here to view the new web-site for EW Trends and Charts

Monday, April 19, 2010

Monday updates

Here is a quick look at the Russell, where the sell-off looks much more corrective, then impulsive. The Green corrective count fits much better then the Blue, impulsive count, and is one of the reasons I am really questioning that this sell-off is nothing more then a just a brief correction to burn off some of the over-bought conditions with higher highs to come.
This longer term view has what I think is the highest odds for what is happening, and as long as 1175 holds, this is my prefered option. I also added another trendline in Gray, in case 1175 does not hold, and if the SPX keeps acting as it has for the past year, expect another bounce close the that line, as it has worked more then once in the past for finding the turning point. That RSI reading has the Bear in me spooked, it is an awfully high reading for this stage of a correction, and hopefully is not an early warning sign that we have much higher highs coming for the next few months. After the close, With no follow through to Friday's sell-off, the odds of a major sell-off happening now are quickly diminishing. All this has done is increase the number of possibilities. My favorite option (the most likely in terms of odds) is that we have finished wave "A" from the February lows at the point I have the green 5?, and are currently in the "B" wave that will trace out a pattern like what we saw back in November with higher highs to come. The second option is that we have NOT finished the wave up from 1044.50, and is why I have that question mark for the 5th, meaning we are in some sort of a 4th wave correction, again with higher highs to come. Thirdly, we are finished with that wave up, and now are either correcting in some sort of 2nd wave, with a strong 3rd wave up making higher highs (highly unlikely), and lastly, we are stating a major correction, and have finished the 1st wave down, and are currently in the 2nd wave up, before a larger sell-off occurs in the 3rd wave down. The wave pattern for the sell-off thus far does not look overly impulsive, especially on the Russell, where an a-b-c counts out much better then a five wave impulse down.
1175, continues to be the breaking point for a bullish count, and will also change the trend to down, but for now I am sticking with the neutral stance until the larger term wave counts make more sense.
Breadth for the day ended at 1.26:1, decliners, a flat day by the time it was over. Also of note, the SPX did break out of the bearish Fib fans I posted earlier.

9:14, The VIX is now testing resistance on the last short-term bearish fib fan. Currently 19.49
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
9:01, The SPX finally made a short-term lower low this morning, 1175, still stands as a major trend changer. Now we wait to find out if this sell-off has legs, and accelerates to the downside, or if it stalls, and becomes a three wave move down, or corrective wave.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:45, On a longer term chart, the bullish fib fans are holding, final support on these fans are around the 1175 level, as is trend line support from the lows of 666.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:28, There is enough data now to put a set of bearish fans on the short-term chart, however, I have a bad feeling that those fans are not going to hold for very long, and the bullish fans are going to prevail. The bears needed follow through today, from Friday's move, and so far there has been none.

1 comment: