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Monday, April 5, 2010

Monday updates

Here is a nice clean and simple wave count for the Russell, one I have shown before, but now that it has filled out just makes even better sense. Could it really be as simple as this? BTW, the count I have on the SPX is based off of this chart.
The McClellan Oscillator moved back to a buy, and into positive territory today, I am expecting a divergence to happen when the Indexes top, that is the MO not making higher highs, as the indexes will do, a sign of weakening momentum.

Here is one more reason the Bull in me is nervous, and after the close today has caused enough concern for me to have my Bear suit dry-cleaned, so it will be nice and fresh for the coming downtrend. The number of stocks above their 50 day MA is VERY close to peaking, which it normally does JUST before the index itself peaks, and the selloff begins.
This is the follow-up chart from Friday's post, I was looking for a break-out today, and it did not disappoint, the yields exploded upwards today.

After the close, After that gap up open, and making a new high, the SPX stayed in a tight 3 point trading range for the reminder of the day. The trend continues up as a higher high was made at 1187.73, breaking Friday's high of 1181.43, and still no lower lows.
Most of the day was stuck in consolidation of most likely a 4th wave, but I am unsure of the degree of that wave at this point so I left a question mark for the 3rd wave of 5 up. Never the less, consolidation normally points to the over-all trend as continuing, and with the count unfinished with higher highs still to come. I am starting to be a nervous bull, as we are approaching overhead trendline resistance along with Fib fan resistance at the 1200 level and it would not be surprising to see this rally truncate early. Caution is warranted at these nose-bleeding levels.
Breadth for the day ended at 2.97:1, advancers, this is respectable, but not overly bullishness with the low volume numbers.
One interesting point about the day was that as most of the indexes were making new highs, the VIX did not confirm by making a new low.
Levels for a trend change are a minor low of 1165.77 that would put the trend in jeopardy, and the major low of 1152.88, that would confirm a change. Levels that would change the above Elliott wave count would be breaking below 1181.43, the high of the 1st wave of the 5th up. Wave 4 can not enter the price territory of the 1st wave, and doing so would invalidate the micro count.

Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
6:53, The count from last week is still on track, cross my fingers, we should get a strong bullish move today, that will push the breadth and volume numbers up from last week if we are indeed in a 3rd, of 5th wave up. Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!

Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
6:35, A gap up open to make a higher high on the SPX, the price action continues to be solidly contained with in the bullish fans, with no bearish fans present what so ever!!!

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