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Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Tuesday updates

After the close, The trend does continue as up since we made a higher high. One worrisome thing for me and very suspect is the over-lapping wave structure from the 1152.88 low that looks more corrective, then impulsive at this point. It could very well be the start of an ending diagonal or some sort of topping pattern for the 5th and final wave. A this point, because of the chance of a sudden sell-off in a truncated 5th wave up, I am moving my marker for a trend change up to 1152.88, the SPX has no reason to visit this level with the current wave count, unless something big is going on, like a major sell-off. The upside targets are still around the 1200-1225 levels, and we are not at extreme over-bought levels yet, because the consolidation burned off some of those conditions in the last few days in that 4th wave.
Breadth for the day ended at 2.69:1, advancers, on average volume, nothing surprising there, and definitely not extreme bullish numbers.

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8:09, The SPX is right on track, starting the "C" wave of the 4th down. I removed the gray, optional count I had going. The A-B-C, corrective count is no longer valid now that this wave 4 is taking a sideways shape, there is little doubt now that this rally has not been anything besides impulsive.

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7:26, The gray fib fans on the daily chart of the SPX continue to be respected, and the one is acting as resistance with the SPX sliding along the line, but without breaking through to the upside.


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7:21, Looks like a boring day in the works.

3 comments:

  1. Columbia... so there is no big corrective way coming like Dr McHugh has been taking about. A wave that will take us below the Mar 09 lows?

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  3. C=1.618 @ 1196. Quite possibly an ED starting from blue 4. Also 3=1 and 5=1.618 @ 1210. 1196/1210 most likely target area. Target date April 2nd.

    This is still wave 'A' of an even larger ED. Target 1400 area, possibly new all time high. Still too many bears around.

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