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Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Tuesday updates

After the close, The SPX has again made a higher high, with-out any lower lows, so the short-term trend remains up. I do have a count that can call the wave up finished, but I am very Leary about calling that a completed wave count without some serious follow-thru to the downside tomorrow. It is possible that the squiggles down from the top were impulsive, but I am leaning more towards that move as a corrective count until we have some confirmation. Breaking below 1134.90, would be one step, that is making a lower low that would challenge the current up-trend. A increase in sell volume and breadth are also needed.
There is an open gap along with the lower channel and trendline support all nested together down at the 1125 level. The next lower low, is all the way down at 1116.58.
Breadth for the day finished at 1.32:1, advancers, on low volume. Nothing here that would support either conclusion, basically a flat day.[Edit, the updated, and final volume numbers are showing a large increase on volume for the day]
If the SPX can top out before we reach 1150.45, that would be a very bearish development, having some indexes making new highs, while others do not would increase the odds of a major sell-off in the works, rather then just a minor correction. It would also give the SPX a double top formation, another bearish sign, where after testing the highs, the SPX failed to make a new high.
7:48, I changed the count on the SPX to match that of the NYSE, replacing the 3-4, with an A-B. This count is much more proportionate for the over-all count.

1 comment:

  1. I am not a conspiracy theory dude but man this market looks so freaking fixed it is not even funny. The entire PPT going to work makes me glad I am out of this market because this thing is now a house of cards. There are no bidders out there actively buying this market up - maybe the programs are making a squeeze here and there but this thing just won't stop going up and as much as I hate to see it go there is no way I am riding on a ghost train for a market.
    Just my 2 cents.

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