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Monday, March 1, 2010

Monday updates

After the close, The Russell is on track to make a new high at this rate, and is still making higher highs, and not lower lows, so the trend remains up. The corrective wave 2 up count is also in jeopardy if a new high is made. If so I will have to replace the "A", and "B", with another 1-2, and rework the longer term count. But things still are in over-bought territory in the longer term counts, and there are divergences showing up on most time frames, so what little upside is left is small, and a sell-off should be in the cards here soon to relieve those conditions. The SPX is really lagging behind the Russell as far as price action goes, so it might be possible that the Russell could make a new high, while the other indexes do not, in a totally different short-term count.
Breadth for the day ended at 3.84:1, advancers, on really low volume.
8:20, FWIW, I went 100% short in WSS, after staying in cash over the week-end.

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8:05, The SPX has divergences showing now, that is the price is making higher highs, but the RSI, is making lower highs. Peaking back where I have the iii of 3 of C of (Y). I do not have as much confidence in this count as I have in the Russell's, but as the day has wore on, the count on the SPX is becoming much clearer.
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6:55, The Russell is still on track with the 3rd of the 5th wave this morning. I am going to stick with the Russell, the count makes more sense in this index, then any of the others. The SPX did manage to make a higher today also, confirming that the trend remains up. FWIW, the Dollar is also on a rip today, making higher highs.
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  1. eherm..[s67200084]&disp=P

  2. The RUT is really going to test the i. ii. wave count isn't it? Wow.

    Glad you posted this RUT count. I was really getting concerned & couldn't drill down on the preferred count.

    Do you find the wave i's 'look & feel' to be less impulsive than wave ii's look & feel??

  3. Jimbo, Tony has also remarked, that it is nearly impossible to put that count onto the SPX, although it does work on the INDU.

  4. Here's something else (non EW) to ponder. The oil price action. Oil peaked at $83.95 on January 11. If one looks back to last October a distinct head and shoulders is forming. Please note the right shoulder is, so far, lower than the left.

    The recent price run-up from $69.50 has been on declining volume and from what I can tell of the price action today, $80, give or take, is shaping up to be overhead resistance.

    Back to the S&P/crude relationship. Five trading days later (during which time oil fell steadily), the S&P500, after exceeding the high reached on January 11 by less than half a point, went into a rather pronounced tailspin. The theory: oil leads. If it can't get above today's high price for the rest of the trading week and, even better, begins to diverge and fall independently of the levitating stock indices, look out below.

  5. Hi Mike. How about that RUT?!?!

    It is right up against its big bear trendline from the 2007 top on a log scale chart.