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Monday, March 29, 2010

Monday updates


This chart, together with the Fib fan chart above, are both pointing to 1200 at this point in time as overhead resistance for this rally, and the way the SPX has been grinding its way higher, hitting 61.2% retracement from the high back in '07 is not out of the question at 1228.74.

After the close, WOW, BORING day stuck in a very tight trading range and now the seventh straight day of these over-lapping corrective waves.
This has to be a base building process for a push up for higher highs so I am going back to the UP trend from the neutral stance I took last week. If we did have a top put in at 1180.69, we should of had a sell-off by now, and what little selling was done, never had any follow-thru to it, and that is not what typically happens during a sell-off where breadth and volume should continue to escalate as the sell-off gets going. All this consolidation is doing now is burning off the over-bought conditions, clearing the way for another push higher as the SPX slowly grinds its way to the finish of this rally that started back at 1044.50.
Breadth for the day was only 2.22:1, advancers on low volume.
Levels that would start making this uptrend in danger of continuing would be 1161.48 (minor low). And at 1152.88 (major low) the trend would mostly become down as breaking below this would be making a lower low, and would most likely signal that the up count for the rally has been completed.
With the SPX stuck in this trading range for the last week, it is starting to look and feel like the 4th wave (green) may not be completed just yet, I do not like the idea of this already being an ending diagonal with the second wave completed (gray 2), it just does not look right with the internal wave structure.

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6:59, Another gap up open, it will be real interesting to see if the SPX closes the gap like it did on Friday.

4 comments:

  1. nonfarm payroll comes out on Friday, but with the market being closed, i suppose the good news could spill over into Monday of next week. thats the big wild card that i see here.

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  4. Please do not SPAM my blog, it will not be tolerated!!!

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