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Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Tuesday updates

After the close, That was a really interesting day, with an impulse wave down right at the open, and it is too early to tell if the 2nd wave up from 1044.50 has been wrapped up yet. Today's movement does fit nice as part of a 4th wave on the SPX with a higher high to come for the 5th and final wave, and also as a new impulse wave down. If it was part of a new down trend, we did retrace over 30% for a second wave on the SPX, and 38% on the Russell, so it is very possible tomorrow could be a bigger down day.
Breadth ended the day near its lowest reading of only 2.26:1, decliners, after being up near 3:1 in the first half of the trading day, and volume was about normal for the last 5 day average. Those low readings are not what I would expect for the start of a new down trend. I would be much more comfortable with the 1-2 down count if breadth was over 5:1, and with a sizable increase in volume. We definitely made some lower lows today, so the short-term trend is now down. The indicators on the different time framed charts are all mixed, The 5, 30, and 60 minute charts are oversold, and the 15 minute, and the daily are over bought. Things are about as even as they can be, 50/50, on want tomorrow brings, and a good night to have stayed in cash.

9:50, FWIW, I exited my short positions in WSS, now 100% cash.
8:56, Here is a chart of the ES-mini's, I wanted to double check that we did not make a new high in overnight trading, and as best as I can tell, wave 2, is not larger then the 1st wave down, and the 1st wave down can be counted as an impulse. This should then be a valid count.
FWIW, I still have not taken the more bullish count off of the table, as this could be part of a 4th wave, with higher highs to come.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:26, The move down this morning was strong enough to add a bearish count as an option to the bullish count where this would be part of the 4th wave, with higher highs to come for the final 5th. Breadth is currently running 3.08:1, decliners, plenty to give the bearish count real credence. The VIX also has broke up and away from the falling bullish wedge further supporting the bearish count. We just need follow-thru for the rest of the day, with increasing sell volume, together with higher breadth to confirm the count.
Click here for an updated real time chart!!!
7:05, We opened with what most likely is an impulse wave down, that has made a lower low, breaking below 1100.91, the up-trend now is in serious jeopardy. There is an open gap at 1077-1079, that would loved to be filled.


  1. Mike.... Thanks for the updates today.

  2. Columbia
    Do you see the SPX in iii now or do we still have to finish ii ?

  3. An alternative view (and the one I favor at the moment) is that we got an abc for 'A' and this is now the start of a triangle 'B' which will be followed by a 'C' to new highs. All part of a large final ED.

  4. col, nice eod wrap and chart; it was a doozie huh?


  5. Hi, where do u get those 15 min charts?

  6. Hubert, A 15 minute chart is one where each "bar" is 15 minutes long.

  7. Stock charts is where I have them, but most charting services I know of all have 15 minute charts., and also thinkorswim, both have them, and their software is free :)

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