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Thursday, February 4, 2010

Thursday update

The SPX is firmly back into the bearish Fib fans.
Here is a quick look at the bullish Fib fans that will act as support for the sell-off, I removed all the bearish fans because it was too crowded to see what was happening with the both.

The Russell was one of the weakest indexes today, and leaves no doubt that the 2nd wave is over, this is one I have been worried about after a such small correction percentage wise for the 2nd wave.

After the close, WOW, DOW broke 10,000!!!
What a day, things are really pointing to this being wave 3 down, breadth today was up at numbers I have not seen in quite awhile, and the numbers I have been expecting for a 3rd wave down closing at 10.41:1, decliners, on VERY heavy sell volume. This is the type of confirmation I have been waiting for.
On the count, I am unsure of the micro waves, but my best guess is we are close to finishing the 1st wave of 3 down with a possible small rally soon for the 2nd wave of 3, before we really get into the meat of the sell-off.
Needless to say, the trend is down now, as all the indexes made lower lows, and also new lows since the top.
The Dollar was in charge today as oil and commodities got hammered, with lots of broken supports along the way.
The next major support on the SPX is now at 1029.38, November 2nds low.
*** The 20 day is only .02 points away from crossing the 50 day MA, creating a Death Cross for the bulls!!!
11:17, The Dollar is on a tear again today, making a higher high at $79.97, this is the best looking chart of the new year!!!

9:56, The trendline of support from the July lows has been broken. Also have a target for the 3rd wave now, 977.30, if the 3rd wave ends up measuring 1.618% of the length of the 1st wave.

9:02, This chart says it all!!!

Click here for an updated real time chart!!!
7:35, updated Fib fan, BTW the 50 day should cross the 20 day MA, before the end of the day, setting up a bearish death cross.

***7:31, Breadth is up to 8.88:1, decliners, on VERY heavy sell volume!!!
7:20, One note of caution, it is possible that the correction we saw was part of a 4th wave in the Russell, and this sell-off could be the 5th wave down finishing the impulse wave down from the Highs.

7:10, The SPX has dropped down to trendline support, this gives, watch-out below!!!

7:00, This count is very likely now. Breadth 8:1, gaps, all the way down, and the Russell has already made a new low!!!


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  2. Seems to be an awfully shallow retracement for ii. Could this be a b. wave of an expanded flat for ii. instead?

  3. Gumbo, the SPX retraced more then the required 38%

  4. Amazing day, been loving the FX world, once in a lifetime type moves. great work

  5. hey. I usually look at your charts every day on stockcharts. so i want to say thank you for the work.

    one question:
    it seems that you, along with everyone else, are discounting the possibility for today being wave (v) of i. any reason why?

    i actually think that is the most likely possibility.

  6. Nagual, Breadth was really high on the sell-off today, also we had 40% retracement already on the SPX, plenty for a second wave.

  7. This chart is yours, you think 1200 is still possible?
    SPX sitting on that support line.$SPX&p=60&yr=2&mn=0&dy=3&i=p47727130284&a=173081463&r=192

  8. Yes, that is my chart, and no, I do not think it is possible now, it was an issue over time, we were running out of time for the "B" wave to finish, but with the rapid sell-off, the "B" wave has been completed, instead of a diametric triangle as that chart shows