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Monday, February 1, 2010

Monday updates

After the close, What a mess on the micro counts for the day, from the larger picture, it looks like waves "A", and "B", more so then an impulsive style wave that is needed for "C" wave in the chart directly below.
1088 was like a brick wall for most of the day as numerous attempts were make at breaking up and through it, finally doing so at the close.
The SPX has broke out of the channel from 1050, and also out of the shorter term bearish Fib fans, but has yet to make a higher high. 1096.45, is the level that will accomplish that.
1100-1107 are all spots that different methods for finding a good spot for the wave 2 up to end keep popping up.
My two prefered counts are still valid, and now they are very close to showing the same ending for the 2nd wave, although how they get there, differ.
Breadth for the day ended at 3.72:1, advancers, respectable, but not with the volume that would suggest a strong bullish move. Volume was down compared to what we were seeing last week.
FWIW, In Wall Street Survivor, I stayed in cash for the entire day, there just were no good edges to get in on a trade, short-term, or long-term, in the indexes. Maybe tomorrow?

Click here for an updated chart!!!
10:20, The SPX has broke out of the channel, as well as the Fib fans. Click here for an updated Fib. fan chart
The counts are still unclear, the two most likely ones are the chart above and the chart posted at 7:44. One other option would be this counting out as another 4th wave, but I have not found a good micro count that supports that just yet. Breadth currently is running 3.34:1, advancers.
One thing of note about the chart above, Master33 made a great point about how I have the retracement set-up for the 2nd wave, and after checking the book, pg. 138, figure 4, there are two methods to measuring the "C" wave of an expanding triangle. The first, and the one on the above chart, is the length of wave 1, plus .618% equals wave "C". And the other is wave "C" equals 1.618% of wave "A", and they come out with different endings, the difference is the first method does not take into account the length of the "B" wave, while the second method does.

The ES-Minis show a much more impulsive wave down from Friday's open, then the cash SPX does.

7:44, This would be the best option if we take Friday's sell-off as an impulsive wave.

7:20, I am putting this option back on the table, it is the one from 11:22 on friday's post, and with a clear three count wave down on the cash SPX, from the open on Friday, it does count best as a corrective "B" wave. Upside target for the 2nd, would be 1107.76, if wave C = 1.618 times wave A.


  1. Are we in an A-B-C correction or is this Wave 2 up?

  2. if it is an a-b-c, correction, it could very well be the 2nd wave up.

  3. Sloppy overlapping waves to the low could be an ending diagonal, particularly as the last drop was clearly a three.

  4. Excellent work.

    Note the possibility that the entire drop could be the end of a large expanded flat (being preceded by a large three). Not as crazy as it sounds if Gann targets of SPX 1230 and FTSE 6000 are to be achieved in the summer, and certainly an option worth bearing in mind.

  5. Your ABC count is what I was tracking on as of the close Fri. Glad to see someone else sees this potential count.

  6. One other possibility not yet observed is the possibility of a triangle starting at blue 3 and ending at the a,b shown prior to 5. This also makes the entire drop a three and will be confirmed if the market heads north to overlap blue 1.

    In fact both the ED and triangle observations make this drop a three rather than a five (so far).

  7. Good Evening Columbia. I think you need to make a vist to and tell Planet Yelnick you are not in China. :-)
    Thanks for the update! +1