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Friday, February 26, 2010

Friday updates

After the close, Sorry for the delay, the Doctor called and invited me to go see Miss Count Dracula.
Volume today was very low, in a market that could not make up its mind, but did close in the green. The counts are really confusing and there are multiple ways of counting this whole mess since 1144.50. The important things though, breadth and volume keep decreasing, and when you have that combination, you have a rally built on a very weak foundation that is unsustainable, and once the breaking point is reached, will come crumbling down.
A part of the count above, the leading diagonal, is another option that I seen over at Kenny's Technical Analysis Blog yesterday, that would fit the SPX nicely. We just need that 2nd wave up to be corrective. I still like the 4th wave count that I have going on the Russell, BTW.
Breadth for the day was a paltry 1.46:1, advancers on pathetic volume. We did manage to make a higher high, by breaking above 1106.42, so the trend continues to be up. 1112.42, is the next higher high, and also the highest high since we visited 1144.50.
I will have a bunch of longer term, and Fib fan charts posted throughout the week-end.
8:35, I am just throwing this count out there, it has no came to the point, that the SPX has no count that I find any high level of confidence in. This move up from 1144.50 has been so filled with corrective waves that getting an accurate count is next to impossible. The 1-2, 1-2, down option was invalidated this morning as I thought was quite possible after watching the Russell all day yesterday. The SPX did make a higher high, so the short-term trend remains up.

Click here for an updated real time chart!!!
7:06, After a quiet open, the SPX just broke below one of the bullish fib fans, this could be the start of a new short-term down trend.


  1. Col, I think the only chance the bears have is that this is the c wave of a flat, so either we turn down very hard very soon or we're off to new highs

  2. Could this be a head and shoulder pattern and we are on the right shoulder and ready to go lower.
    I am feeling sick about this entire move up and am stepping back and looking at the charts not the waves or counts just the shape and I see what looks to be a head and shoulder. Does anyone else see this or am I trying too hard?

  3. smokeyeyed, Dr McHugh sees what you are seeing.

    "We continue to monitor Bearish patterns. The S&P 500 completed and confirmed a Head and Shoulders top pattern from November 2009 a week ago, meaning the probability of its downside target being reached, 990ish, is high. The plunge from January 19th through February 5th 2010 also breached the bottom boundary of an Ascending Expanding Wedge, which means the probability of its downside target, 975ish, is quite high. So two patterns now warn that the S&P will drop to at least the 975-990ish area."

  4. I guess all I can do now is wait and see.
    This whole thing is making me sick just watching it unfold. I just started really getting into the whole wave structure and counts and just as i started to understand it and think things would go down it all goes to crap.
    I thought for sure we would see a 3 down and then I could start to understand how and when to get in but it looks like I have missed it on both sides.
    I am beginning to think these markets are being artificially held up since the volume is so light it would be an easy thing to do - you know the whole PPT theory - beginning to become a believer and that makes me want to stay out of the market even more.

  5. Just curious also - since everyone (even the Hedge Fund mgr's) are looking at the waves would it not be something if since everyone is wanting to go one way that it didn't? Or do they not trade like that and EW is a small community?
    Just asking.