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Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Wednesday updates

After the close, That was one boring day for the SPX, stuck in a 6 point range while consolidating in a 4th wave, with some of the lowest volume seen in weeks. The trend still continues to be up, as we did make another higher high for the day and the micro count does have a little up-side left to finish a 5th wave. The consolidation did burn off some of the over-bought conditions and that should also allow some more up-side.
The big news of the day was the Buck, it was disconnected from the indexes making a nice bullish run today closing up near the days high.
Breadth ended the day at only 2.09:1, advancers on pathetic volume, meaning we had no follow-thru to yesterdays strong bullish move. Not a good sign for the bulls as the volume is drying up on the rallies, the same thing happened before the top at 1150.73.
The SPX is primed along with the VIX, for a sharp sell-off at any time now, we could even make that final push up for the 5th wave in over-night trading hours.

Click here for a live, and updated chart
9:47, The VIX is really close now to breaking out of it's falling bullish wedge,with the MACD already curled over and close to giving a buy signal. The break-out should start a good sized sell-off in the indexes.
BTW, the Dollar is on a tear today, up to 80.43 at one point from a low down at 79.56.

Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
8:17, Starting to see the indicators rolling over, I also added a third parallel trendline. 1104.73 seems to be holding so far this morning, interesting to see if the rising bearish wedge breaks before we reach that older high. Although it could retrace further, we do have more then enough to satisfy the required 38.2% retracement for a 2nd wave.
Breadth currently is running only 1.89:1, advancers, on low volume, if fact the volume for this whole rally has been in a steady decline.


7:47, The Russell is now approaching the old trendline from the July lows, that was once support, but now is resistance, and the indicators are at extreme readings now severely over-bought and needing a correction to be able to sustain this rally much further

Click here for an updated real time chart!!!
7:26, The SPX is firmly into the bullish fans. The trend continues to be up, as we keep making higher highs. 1104.73, is the next high that the SPX needs to break above to keep the rally going

9 comments:

  1. Great charts and analysis, I follow your work closely. One request, if you have the time, could you post similar charts for GLD? Since we are in a cyclical commodity bull market into 2014, that analysis should be quite interesting in the coming years. Keep up the good work!

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  2. Thanks, Stormchaser, the Gold chart is something I need to work on :)

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  3. Great stuff Mike! Love those fib fans. FWIW, I do have a gold chart up on Fibs and Waves as of yesterday.

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  4. great indicators and stats, thanks col!

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  5. Excellent analysis as always. In terms of TIME, as I pointed out a couple of days ago, there are no significant astrological or Gann dates between now and March 1st. This suggests that the rally will continue, perhaps even attempting a double top. Shape does look like the development of a B wave, but what we've seen so far is likely to be only wave A of a more complex ABC. A sharp selloff after completion of this small 4th and 5th might only be something to do with a wave B prior to another advance in wave C.

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  6. I've just noticed that a correction from the SPX 1105 area will set up a potential inverted head and shoulders with a target of a double top. Such an outcome isn't indicated by volume, but IS suggested by TIME and the fact that the Bradley route for this year indicated a peak on March 1st.

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  7. David I hope you don't have too much riding on your astrological/Gann/Bradley thesis because this market is about to head downtown. March 1st? I'd give it 48 hours at most.

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  8. Ha! No worries Hetty. My observations are purely 'what if' and give an alternative view. Clearly it would be madness to take a position for a double top until/unless a neckline at 1105 is formed and gets broken. Time will tell.

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  9. hi today possible star iii target under 1020??
    what do you think???

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