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Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Tuesday updates

This is the longer term picture to go with the comments below.
After the close, I do not like what I see, the count looks like it should be a complex corrective wave for the 4th, an a-b-c-d-e triangle, but upon closer examination, waves "A", "C", and what would be the "D" wave all count out best as impulse waves. And a corrective a-b-c-d-e needs to count out as 3-3-3-3-3, making that invalid.
That leaves three options, the first is that the 5th is completed as is the whole "C" wave from 1095, but it just does not feel right nor look completed in the larger picture.
The 2nd option would be that today finish not the 5th wave, but only the 1st wave of the 5th, with higher highs to come, but again, this wave today is extremely large for a 1st of 5th wave compared to the rest of waves of the same degree. But would be allowable as an extended 5th.
And the 3rd option is that it indeed is a complex triangle that breaks or bends the rules and guidelines, that ended the today with wave "D" of 4, completed.
Breadth for the day ended at 3.47:1, a respectable number for the month, but by no means strong. Again we ended the day by making new highs, but with-out the indicators following suit. There are diverging again and showing sell-signals on the Full STO, even in the longer time period charts. The VIX also did not confirm the bullish move by making a new low.
FWIW, in WSS is sold my 50% short position at the open, and went back 50% short near the close. Stayed in cash during most of the day.

Click here for an updated look at the Fib fan chart!!!
I added a short-term set of bullish fans this morning, after the set from Friday got invalidated.

9:08, the count is still up in the air, either we are in a 1-2 down pattern that started last Friday, or we are working on the final 5th wave up, so far the wave this morning has been much more impulsive looking, then corrective. 1150.33, and 1131.45 are the two most important numbers I will be watching for.

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