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Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Tuesday updates

After the close, Well we had no follow-thru to yesterdays bullish move. Just a quiet day with the SPX bouncing around in a tight 6 point range, closing near the high of the day. The Russell on the other hand was weak, and closed in the red.
Breadth for the day was only 1.50:1, again on low volume. Seeing the breadth and volume so low does not confirm any new bullish moves from yesterdays rally. The MACD and the RSI on the charts are also diverging negatively, making lower highs, as the SPX was making higher highs, a bearish sign.
Levels on the downside are 1130.13 and 1115.10 for signs of a changing trend. Currently the trend is still up, as we keep making new highs, but I believe the bulls time is about up based on the TA.
On the counts, I still am not comfortable with any of them. There are just too many broken rules and broken guidelines with the size of the waves that are too far out of proportion to have any confidence on any of the short-term counts.

9:48, The SPX has no more room left on the up-side without breaking through two very important trendlines, notice the trendlines on the indicators, same story, Do or Die time for the bulls!!!

Click here for a look at an updated chart!!!
9:45, The Bollinger Bands are starting to tighten up again.


7:30, Here is my most bullish count, a 1-2, 1-2 up, but the trendline needs to get decisively broke first if we are truly in the iii of 3 count. And so far the internals are not confirming that, breadth at this time is only 1.35:1 advancers, not what one would expect for a 3rd wave.


Cleck here to see the updated Fib fan chart, and please vote!!!
7:12, The Fib fans did provide some resistance this morning, now there is more downside availible, then upside.

1 comment:

  1. That long term trend line could certainly get overthrown with some sort of non-qualified break in the short run as a bull trap. Personally, I'm expecting -- soon -- either a fifth wave overthrow up, or a third-of-third up.

    ReplyDelete