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Friday, January 8, 2010

Friday updates

It could not be more fitting then to see the Fib fans stop that last minute spike up.

This is a chart of the SPX with the Bollinger Bands overlayed, with a spike that broke up, and out of the Bollinger Bands at the close. I have seen this many times, and 9/10 it will turn out to be a head fake that quickly reverses back into the bands.

After the close, Now we are talking, this looks like a finished wave finally, and the icing is that blow-over top, up out of the rising bearish wedge, with an ending diagonal count completed. On top of that the spike up out of the Bollinger Bands which normally quickly reverses itself.
Breadth finished at 1.56:1 advancers.
Levels to watch for confirmation of a trend change on Monday would be 1136.75, followed by 1131.52.

9:32, Here is one possible micro count. This has the 5 of "C" completed, but it is possible that it needs one more micro squiggle to finish the 5th. I am just waiting for that trendline of support to give way!!!

Click here to view an updated chart!!!
8:47, Still waiting for the SPX to break through the Fib fan at 1137-1138 to get the ball rolling. There has not yet been any higher highs, nor lower lows made this morning, so far the trend for the day is neutral, and the current breadth confirms that , running at 1.08:1 decliners. We did have a full five count impulse wave down from 1142.36 to 1136.75 this morning, so it is possible that we might be in a 1-2 down count, currently in wave "B" of 2. Still too earlier to put much confidence in this count.

8:24, The SPX is still stuck in the rising bearish wedge, even after the unemployment data came out, which in my opinion was the most cooked set of data I have seen to date.

This is an excerpt from Mish's post this morning.

"...government spent a record $14.7 billion on Unemployment Insurance Benefits as of December 30, a 24% jump sequentially from the $11.8 billion in November. Yet the DOL has disclosed a mere 1.7% increase in those to whom insurance benefits are paid: from 9.4 million to just under 9.6 million. To put the $14.7 billion number in perspective, in December the Federal Government paid a total of $14 billion ($700 million less) in Federal Salaries!"
To read the full story click here!!!

Humm- They dollar amount of the benefits paid out in December grew by 24% from the November numbers, but yet there was only a reported 1.7% increase in the number of recipients. Something is not right here!!!


  1. right on, they're cooking the books to try to keep this thing going. crash crash burn

  2. I just came to the realization from watching this Bloomberg video that at the average rate of job growth coming out of previous recessions it would take us 11 years to get back to 2007 levels of employment. In fact, even if we were at 300% above the average, which would represent a very aggressive recovery, then it would take 3-4 years to get back to 2007.

    Link to Bloomberg Video:

  3. And in those previous recessions the US Census Bureau most likely did not create 1.2 million plus jobs.!!!

  4. 2c worth
    it has been well understood by the markets that unemp will be high for a long time since day 1 of this recession, due mainly to the downsizing of many major corp's. It is my belief that if/when these same corp's ever rebuild thier workforces back to previous levels, unemp will get back closer to what is was, but it will likely NEVER be the same. This is something that will be with us for a long time. (sad to say)
    Hardly anyone expects it to even get back 1/2 the jobs that were lost and 7-8% will probably be the new norm in the future (best case scenario) and markets are more or less pricing that into stocks using that for target expectations. So, anyone waiting to buy stocks when unemp gets back to the old 5-6% range will have missed any rally that might come on the back of that news!
    syl, nice charts again as usual COL
    re: market stance at this point - Neutral (+/- 3-4% of 1145 S&P, upside is limited for a few months at least) with possibility of major correction at any time !