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Wednesday, January 27, 2010

When we do have a new trend upwards for the 2nd wave, I expect these Fib fans to provide resistance, along with the 50day MA, which is currently at 1114.65. After the 1st wave down is confirmed as finished I will be able to also add the Fib retracement levels to this chart.
After the close, The FOMC meeting gave us that spike down that really made a nice looking 5 wave impulse to finish up the 3rd wave down, and that was followed by a more corrective looking wave up that counts out nicely as the "A" wave of the 4th. Looking for more downside tomorrow as we finish tracing out the "B" of 4 wave, and another boring day as we consolidate in this range to finish up the 4th, before that final spike down for the 5th wave. A break above 1104 is going to give me concern that this count is off, and that the 5th was already put in where I have it marked as the 3rd.
The trend is still down as we made a lower low, but no higher highs, the levels for tomorrow are 1103.69 on the upside, and 1083.11 on the bottom.
Breadth for the day ended Flat, with 1516, advancers, and 1519 decliners, does not get much flatter then that, nor does it have the strength that a 1st wave up should be showing if the 5th was already in.
The indicators on the above chart are showing divergences now, but at the same time are in over-bought territory, that is just one of the reasons I believe that we have not put the 5th wave in quite yet.
12:53, FWIW, I went 25% short in WSS.
9:42, Here is the longer term view of the SPX, with my perfered count on it, as of now it looks like the 3rd has not finished as I thought earlier this morning, it seems we are in the iv of 3 count right now. The alternative count has failed to make an impulsive move up, so it is out the window. Breadth is only running 1.88:1, decliners, Boring!!!
8:17, FWIW, I sold my long position in WSS, for a 2% gain. 100% cash now 7:41, still unclear if the final 5th has been put in, the alternative count would have the 5th in now, and my prefered still has a lower low left to go after some consolidation for a 4th wave. If the 5th is already in, I would expect to see a rally, with-out over-lapping waves asap, that would leave no doubt that a short-term bottom is in, on the other hand, for the prefered count I would expect another day like yesterday where we are stuck in a range, with over lapping waves working on a 4th wave, before the final sell-off of the 5th wave


Click here for an updated Fib. fan chart!!!
7:32, we had a test of support, and so far 1083 has held.

FWIW, I went 25% long in WSS at 7:21, at the low of 1085 for a short-term hold.

5 comments:

  1. Mike - I like the SPX count you've got up. I put up a fib chart that would support us getting down towards that gap you're targeting at http://blankfiendsew.blogspot.com/2010/01/spx-fib.html

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  2. WSS- Wall Street Survivor, http://www.wallstreetsurvivor.com/Public/Members/Profile/columbia1.aspx

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  3. Mike, great charts, but this time I do see today's low as the end of whatever first wave (minute, minuette, etc). The bounce pushed the index outside the channel......Binve's charts, which allows for the 3 to be outside seems more correct. Also the last move in your chart seems a bit out of proportion. Anyway, great work and useful guidelines on your positions, although tonight I kept my longs open..........

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  4. Nice count Mikey, I'm a bit torn between this count and binve's.

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