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Friday, January 22, 2010

Friday updates

As I take a break from posting charts, I would like to give Obama a high five, for creating an absolutely great reason to go along with the start of P3 down, nobody in their right mind could of guessed that Obama would of done what he has during this week, and now confusion is running amock all across wall-street as investors try to figure out what is going to be the new direction, and how best to take advantage of it. I have been asked numerous times, what event would likely be attributed to a P3, and I can now see a scenario unfolding, total confusion, with Obama changing course in mid-stream. Bye-bye, Geithner, and Bernanke, wonder what that will do to investor confidence, hehe!!!
This is the daily chart of the SPX, the 50 day MA, also got broke today, and turns into resistance now, and the Bollinger bands were broke to the downside, where the normal course of action is for the price to quickly reverse and recapture the bands. Still not seeing any sort of negative divergences on the indicators, meaning we can still have more downside before we correct back up.
This is one of the most bearish looking charts in my stash of charts, the SPX is buried in three different sets of Fib fans. It was also one of the best charts to watch today, the SPX respected the bearish fan from 1050.31 perfectly, every time somebody would get bullish today, I would show them this chart!!!

This is a monster move for the VIX, I am just wondering how long this can last before we get some sort of a retrace, but there are no divergences showing yet, that is the indicators are still making higher highs along with the price of the VIX, normal we get some signs of a reversal before hand, as the indicators start making lower highs, while the price continues making higher highs.

After the close, WOW!!!
we are definitely in a major sell-off now, one month of gains already wiped out in just three days, and from the looks of it, we might have plenty to go, there still is no wave 4's building yet, leaving us somewhere in the 3rd wave down, once we got a 4th wave started, we can measure and find the half way point of the third, and double it to give a fair approximation of the total wave length. Also notice, that we have no divergences on the indicators as of yet. We broke some important lows today as we kept making lower lows. Next in line is 1083.74, and until we make a higher high, 1114.82, at this point, the trend is DOWN. As the day progressed, so did the breadth, making its high near the close, and finishing up at 4.53:1, decliners, on very heavy volume. I have LOTS of charts to post this afternoon and over the week-end, including a daily SPX, with the Bollinger bands that were broke to the downside, and a VIX chart, that is on fire, up close to 20% just today.
11:12, I updated the count, after 1104.89 was broken, and now the best looking count is a 1-2, 1-2, 1-2, down. And there is again a bullish count because we have 7 waves in play now, and that would be an, a-b-c-x-a-b-c, double zig-zag. I am seeing divergences on the charts now, the RSI, MACD, STO, and the Histogram on the above chart did not make a lower lows as did the SPX.
9:19, This is the least bearish option, in blue, with the full five waves down and completed. It is still up in the air which option is playing out, if we make a higher high, this option would be the one, but we need to first break above 1122.64, to invalidate the more bearish option, 1-2, 1-2, down. Breadth is only 1.63:1, decliners at the moment, so that gives the completed wave 1 down some legs, but the SPX, at last glance was firmly buried in the most bearish fib fan, giving a point to the more bearish count. If we make a lower low, that would also confirm the more bearish count, so the two levels to watch are, 1122.64, and 1104.89, and that should confirm which count is valid.
Click here for an updated look at the Fib fan chart!!!
7:16, Really getting bearish now, according to the Fib. fans,
7:04, If the 1-2, 1-2, bearish option plays out, and BTW, it is the most bearish option I presently see, this could be the path it takes, still early in this wave count, but with the Fib retracement levels we can get a guesstimation.

3 comments:

  1. I think it's more likely today's low around 1104 was the bottom of 1 down (you can count 5 down from the top pretty clearly) and we are now in 2 up. We certainly aren't seeing the sort of behavior you'd expect for 3 of 3 down today.

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  2. Hey Col, I love the bearish count, I am right on board!!! Thanks bro!!

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  3. Nice Col! I know the Bernanke decision will be tight next week but you think Geithner may get ousted too? Interesting. Maybe a Volcker prot'eg'e? That would definitely show O'Bama is no longer with the banks. Interesting times indeed.

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