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Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Tuesday updates

After the close, Since the count I posted this morning is still looking good, I picked the BKX to post. I think we have found the red herring, the index that will most likely pull the market down as most people have been expecting for the last 2-3 months (some even longer, LOL) into a major sell-off of at least 10%, and likely, much, much more.
On the SPX we had a nice red candle printed today with a close at the low of the day. It fits nicely as part of a 4th wave playing out. The open did produce a higher high, and a new high, but never did make a lower low, so the trend is still up.
Levels to watch are now 1123.53 on the lower side, and 1128.78 followed by 1130.38 on the topside. Breaking this levels would confirm the existing trend, or signal a trend change might be starting to play out.
The count I have going still suggests higher highs to come before the wave is wrapped up.
Breadth for the day was 1.04:1 DECLINERS, yes, the first time in a while the decliners led, but not by enough to even think about going short-term bearish with-out other signs or confirmations that things are changing. We would need 2-3 days of follow through before that would happen.
Click here for a look at the updated Fib. fan chart!!!
10:40, It was time to update the Fib. fans with the new high in place, and the SPX is firmly into the bullish fan.

8:47, This is the best I have come up with for a count, after spending over an hour trying all sorts of combinations including an extended 1st and 3rd waves I have settled on what I had yesterday, an extended 5th in play, with a little more still left on the upside. The RSI peaks are what sold me on this count. The iii of 3 is at the highest level of the RSI, and also followed that large gap on the strongest impulse of the rally, all things that would confirm the placement of the iii 0f 3 count. The same thing goes with the (iii) and iii of 5th wave count aligning up with the next strongest peaks in the RSI.


  1. Hey Col, I am with you man. It looks to me like Minor C will wind up to 1135-1140 right up to the end of the year with no real pullback. I have a pile of cash waiting to add shorts on Jan 4 :)

  2. hi col.... it's me, gwlk..... just luv your charts!!! I often share them with family and friends to give them a sense of where we are.... clean and crisp.... so nice.... I miss Pat, do you know what happened to him?