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Thursday, December 17, 2009

Thursday Updates

On the long-term chart daily chart, you can see that the sell-off today took the SPX almost the the bottom of the lower Bollinger Band, it should receive some support there. With the bands so tight, something will be giving up here soon, with a very large move one way or the other. The MACD and RSI are diverging negatively, making lower highs, as the SPX has been making higher highs, normal a sign that a trend change is close at hand. After Stockcharts updates, I will post some more charts showing just how the SPX has been making higher highs, but with less strength. It shows very well when looking at the percent of stocks making new highs, and the number of stocks that are above their 50 day MA as the SPX was making higher highs, they both were diminishing,
The Russell's count did not suffer near as bad as the SPX, and is still in relatively good shape, with just a minor break in the trendline of support. Also showing short-term oversold conditions, with a bearish long-term trend in the MACD.

After the close, the count that has been my prefered is on massive life support right now. That was a clear-cut impulse wave down today, not what I was looking for to fit in with an Ending Diagonal Triangle set-up. There were many different charts of indexes today that have broken trendlines of support in them.
This was a day that the Dollar ruled, making a high of $77.84, as long as the Dollar stays on this tear, the equities market is in danger of a major sell-off.
The SPX blew right through support, making lower lows all day, and even closed the gap from Dec. 10th. The next support is 1085.89, the low back on Dec. 9th, followed by 1083.74. On the upside, the two higher highs are 1116.21, and 1119.13.
So for now, the trend has changed to down, until we start making higher highs again.
Breadth for the day was not that bad for the bulls, 2.62:1 decliners, volume was pretty much average. The Short-term charts are showing oversold signs, so it would be likely to have a up day tomorrow, but if the selling follows through tomorrow with increased breadth and sell volume, watch out below!!!
7:33, The daily chart of the SPX has got really bearish looking after this sell-off. Currently breadth is 3.55:1, decliners, still not high enough to label this a strong sell-off!!!

Click here to view the updated Fib fan chart!!!

6:54, The Russell also can be counted with an Ending Diagonal Triangle now!!

6:25, The ES-mini, really is counting out good as an Ending Diagonal Triangle!!!

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