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Friday, December 4, 2009

Friday updates

After the Bell, Updates!!
Bonus chart, this is in my opinion the most important chart of the day, the Dollar finally broke above both trendlines, and is very close to making a higher high!!!
The SPX did end by closing up 6 points, but it traced out 89 points to get there. And that is a conservative figure, without the micro waves added in.

After the Close, Beyond wild and crazy. As far as a valid count for the micro-waves, and even some of the minor waves I have not found any combination that did not break more rules and guidelines then I could count. Nor have I seen any other's small degree counts that in my mind are valid. In the larger picture, my best guess, and that is all it is, would be this is some sort of ending pattern playing out, possible with an expanding triangle thrown in there for good measure. On the SPX chart, some of the indicators are down into the oversold conditions and I believe that most likely we still have more upside left. Also the SPX has fairly well respected the trendlines on the above chart. 1083.74 needs to break for me to even consider that the bears have the ball back in their control.

Breadth for the day was a meager 2.49:1, in the advancers favor on some very high buy volume. The Russell and the TRAN were the strongest of the day, not good news for the bears, as money was moving out of the larger, safer stocks, and back into the small caps. The DOW ended the weakest out of the major indexes.

The Dollar hit $75.94 today, breaking above $76, would be making a higher high!!!

I can not wait for Stockcharts to update their daily charts, but I have the feeling they will add to the Bulls case!!

Click here for an updated Bollinger Band chart!!!
9:08, This best sums up the last couple of days. I have never seen this many head fakes on the Bollinger bands, the market is totally out of kilter today with the Dollar rallying, stocks rallying, then selling off, huge swings (22 points in the SPX) in the major indexes. Maybe this is just one more sign of a top.

After looking at what has happened today, I have to eliminate the 1-2-3-4-5 count (Orange)from the November 2nd lows. When we made a higher high today, that final 5th wave was exceeded, now in my eyes it counts out much better as an a-b-c from the Nov. 2nd lows. The only saving grace for the bears would be if the 5th wave turns out to be some sort of an extended 5th, but by moving the 5th wave (black) to todays highs the 4th (black) wave low entered the 1st wave. Breaking below 1083.74 would put me firmly back into the bear camp!!

8:26, This is how it would look in the long term. I understand that the count is not a perfect orthodoxed Elliott wave count, but this whole rally from 666 has been unorthodoxed in my opinion. The pattern during the whole rally has stayed the same though, just an ever growing larger number of a-b-c's

Click here for an updated Russell chart!!!
7:42, The Russell, which is the strongest index today finally made a higher high.

Click here for an updated VIX chart!!!
7:04, As the DOW and SPX are making new highs, the VIX has yet to confirm by making a new low!!
Click here for an updated Bollinger Band chart!!!
6:39, New high on the SPX. We might of had a double head fake on the Bollinger Bands, wild and crazy, and the bands are still tight. The 1-2 down count is invalidated.

5:45, On the ES-mini there is a chance that we had a full five waves down, if that 5th was truncated. If you go with the possibility that was a full five waves, then the spike up could be part of a correction. The best way to confirm that it was not five waves down would be making a new high. Looks like a gap-up open coming!!
And to top that off the Dollar spiked higher, up .56 to $75.335. Umm, Dollar up, Futures up, and Gold down, sounds like it will make an interesting day. Still looking for the Dollar to break above $76 to make a higher high.

Click here for an updated chart!!!
5:32, Unemployment came in at 10%, futures are now way up!!

The 1-2 up option is picking up some steam, futures jumped to 1111.4 on the news.


  1. gm COL!
    Great stuff as always! I do like your work and can see you put a lot of effort in it. These last few weeks have been a little different than the previous corrections in that it seems to be consolidating longer up here in preparation for the next leg up without the usual 5-7% dip. It was good to see the market recoup from Thursday's drop on even higher volume. Back to back reversals is the hallmark of this latest pattern ( as if i had to say that ). In the end, we are at the mercy of the large institutions that control the market and need to try to think like them when figuring how to trade this. It sure looks like they all got this propped up for a while longer yet until someone decides to pull the plug and leave the rest high and dry. It seems safe to say that the market is not going to crash on the back of a USd rally (one sign to me that the market thinks it will not rally that far or enough to hurt stocks). And being in this Dec-Jan time frame we need to expect the market to be extra bullish. Oct was a time for profit-taking by institutions, thus the larger correction of 7%. Since that is behind us, the market was able to rise on lighter volume indicating a true lack of participation, until reecntly. The volume has picked up again, with an increase in volume on the intitial decline Thursday as it has on every correction before. Also, the major players have been using options more in speculation of a higher move up. This next Opex will be very exciting and will determine the mood of the market in Jan.
    Wow, i got long winded there. That is easy to do for me when talking stocks. Gotta run. Have a nice weekend.

  2. Great work, Michael!

    Thanks for allof your efforts.

    Best wishes to you from Frankfurt,


  3. WOW, Jman, Longwinded?, I do not think so, you laid out a very good aurgument fot the bulls, Thank-you!!!

    Markus- Your are more then welcome, Hope all is well in Germany!!