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Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Wednesday Updates

After the Bell, Slow day, SPX was up for the day, but the Russell closed in the red, again showing the continuing gap is widening between small caps, and blue chips. On the SPX chart, that 1-2, 1-2, combination might work itself out to be just one 1-2. We never made a higher high, nor a lower low today, so I am staying neutral for now. I am going to spend the evening on the counts and should have some charts up by morning. I have avoided doing any detailed counts lately because the markets are all out of whack, with themselves, and the other indexes. There have just been too many options available to make a confident call. At times it is best just to step aside and let things become clearer. Things just get more out of whack when we are stuck in the middle of a very low volume week.
The Spx did manage to close below that trendline, and if you look closely at the VIX chart (link below) there is a little spike coming out of the trendline there!!!
Breadth, 2.14:1, advancers on the lowest volume since this rally began back at 666.
Areas I am watching are, 1112.38, 1113.69 on the upside, and 1097.81, 1086.81 on the bottom for signs of a new trend change!!!

11:09, The SPX finally broke down below the trendline that has held as support since late last week. It is just a small break right now, but never the less important. The bearish wedge I posted at 7:57, finally played out, making a blow-off top in the process. Still waiting for the VIX to confirm and break out of its Bullish wedge.
7:57, Looks like the SPX might be a rising bearish wedge, or an ending diagonal, it would be a fitting way to end this rally, but my gut tells me there may be more going on.

7:02, The Bollinger Bands on the SPX are still tight this morning, we should expect a large move coming soon!!

6:56, Again, the VIX is the chart I am watching for a sign of a trend change. It has been building a bullish wedge for last week, and opened to the downside, still respecting the wedge this morning. When it breaks out of the wedge, we could see indexes start to sell-off. And just in case you missed it, the Dollar made a new low today, $74.49.
Click here for an updated look at the VIX

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