With the SPX, making a new high this morning, this is the count I have going forward, and why. By using the PPO, and the MACD, to place the counts, there was one mini-rally wave that never made it to trendline resistance on the PPO, or the MACD, and I am counting that as part of a larger degree wave B. Also notice that all the indicators are back up at resistance again!!The VIX is also in the green today.
so does this mean you have us set up for a big p3 selloff/
ReplyDeleteWhen haven't we been looking at a big P3 sell off? At some point there must be a break in this rally so provided you're consistent (aka wrong) by saying it will drop next time, then at some point (when it does actually drop) you will be right. Unfortunately, that isn't TA or EWT it's just guessing - Ref: Tony Caldaro.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous, why not go back and look what I had on my post on November 3rd.
ReplyDeletehttp://ewtrendsandcharts.blogspot.com/2009_11_03_archive.html
If you were following, you would of seen my warning about breaking to the upside if the previous high was taken out, as it was. That was a warning a new trend was taken place!!
The reality is that no-one knows what is going to happen next and the whole point of EWT is to be predictive. Prechter has been banging on about the end to this rally almost as long as Neely did and still this tape moves higher. I'm almost at the point of calling EWT complete bollocks.
ReplyDeleteIf you look at the 13,21 and 34 EMA for the daily SPX from the top of 2007 to now you see two signals - one a sell (at the top), one a buy (at the bottom). If becoming a great trader means catching trends - why make it complex when these simple indicators catch it so well??
Anonymous-I checked your chart, it does work, but it also depends on if your an investor or trader, and what time frames you work with. FWIW the Russell is on a sell, now. EW is never 100% accurate, you use it as another tool, along with other TA that fits the time frame you work with. For swing trading (EW) is very worth while to keep track of the counts, but equally important are trend lines, previous highs and lows, etc.
ReplyDeleteColumbia1
ReplyDeleteI want to thank you for the time that you take to post your observations. I along with many others find them helpful.
I think Elliott demonstrates that we as a whole are affected by something bigger and react as a "herd".
The fact that the mkt hasn't gone down doesn't mean the mkt is doing well. "They" might change the value of the $ so they can have a stock mkt that keeps on going up. The amazing thing is that "someone" is letting us know through deep down feelings that "something is not right". The feeling grows stronger everyday that goes by. Of course the fundamentals confirm this unexplainable urge. I know we would like to profit from this knowledge. I think it is enough to know that you should not be an investor in a mkt that is a strong as house of cards.
george