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Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Tuesday Updates

WOW, that was one boring day!!! SPX closed slightly positive, and stayed with-in the channel on strong volume, breadth finished the day at 2.15:1, Advancers. We did trace out an a-b-c that might of finished right before the close. Nothing so far today has changed my outlook or given me any reason to change the count. If we make a lower low tomorrow, I will move my stop down to 1046.28, which would be the last high. As the market stair-steps lower, I will adjust my stop accordingly. I do not have 100% confidence in this count and will play it safe by moving my stop downwards along the way. As long as we continue to make lower highs, the trend is down!!
One positive thing for the bears is that all the oversold conditions are really burning off with all this sideways action, leaving plenty of room now for more downside.
Omen, 28 new highs, 9 new lows.
Throwing out an idea, I very seldom like to project very far into the future, it just is a boring day though.
Now that the SPX has cleared the 50 day MA, the next stop down might be a test of the 200 day MA support, which just happens to coincide with 38.2% retracement at 935-950 level. Humm, is that not also the same level from the Fractal post over the week-end?
It would be a good spot to finish-up the 1st wave down, before a bounce back up for wave 2.
Something else to keep on the Radar!!

So far today the price action is looking much more corrective, then impulsive. Even with the TRAN opening gap up on the Buffett news, SPX is painting out a corrective pattern, along with INDU and RUT.
I am still keeping 1051.82 on my radar, SPX has no reason at this time to break through this level, doing so would require changing the count. As long as we keep making lower lows, and lower highs, the trend remains down!!
My confidence in this 1-2, 1-2 down pattern increased this morning after I saw Alpha's count on the DOW, in his post last night, Where-the-hell-are-we? .


  1. I like those counts Col! I interpreted an ABC for the day as well with the Channel and an Impulse down underway. My overall count is not as bearish as I would expect a Minute [ii] correction up - but not until these counts complete. Great work as always Col!
    - pat.

  2. Thanks Pat, after seeing Alpha's DOW chart I feel a little better about the count.

  3. Thanks...sorry, just noticed that someone had made a comment. Don't often see those. Mostly, I post to present simple thoughts for some longer term investors (family and friends). The pictures are to get their attention. Funny...I just stumbled across your blog a few days ago as well. Appreciate your Elliott Wave slant. I'm no good at it exotic counts...just try to use it when it makes sense. Good work and good luck!