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Thursday, November 5, 2009

Thursday Updates

"The McClellan Oscillator is an intermediate-term indicator, but it can also be used for short-term timing when it bottoms in oversold territory -- in the area of -100 and below. When the McClellan Oscillator moves below the Zero Line a SELL Signal is rendered, and a BUY Signal results when it moves above zero."(Decision point)
Update, after the bell. The Bulls ran the show today, even closing on the high of the day. The DOW also closed above the very important psychological level of 10,000. It is possible that the SPX finished off the 2nd wave today, with a Ending Diagonal, but the count is far from perfect. This wave 2 up has had an unusually high number of weird waves and counting the micro waves has very frustrating.

The Bears do have some things in their favor, the volume has been quickly declining since the start of this wave up from 1029, and I am seeing lots of negative divergences on the indicators. The SPX, currently has retraced slightly more then 50%, and has tested the upper trendline at the close.

The Bulls do currently have the VIX on their side, today it fell back below the trendline of support, into the old channel. This needs to change ASAP for the Bears.

Breadth for the day ended at 4.62:1, Advancers,on light volume, but never the less should be worrisome to the bears as the spread has increased. Still far from the levels we saw during the recent sell-off, on much higher volume.

The McClellan Oscillator should of also had a nice run-up in it, I will post when the EOD data comes out later this evening.

Unemployment expectations are 9.9% tomorrow (WSJ), wonder what happens if 10% is the released number.

The Omen; 78, new highs, and 2 new lows.

Buen ' Dia', Nov 5 : Running on Fumes
By Mark910

The economy is like a car on a trip…it goes up hills, down hills, speeds up, slows down, etc. A car is fueled by the gas tank and the gas from that tank is absolutely necessary to keep the car going. On board you have an extra jerry can that can be used for temporary help but along the way the car must fuel up; but of course the limitation is the gas tank. Click here to read the whole post!!

Here is a look at the big picture, according the the indicators, this wave 2 should be on its last legs. The PPO, is almost back up to the trendline of resistance that has held solidly for the whole rally. With the histo-gram already diverging and trending negatively. Williams and the Full stochastics are also up in overbought conditions. RSI, Relative Strength Indicator is lagging a little, and still has more room available for more upside price action.
Put the Renko chart up this morning, there are just too many ways to count this, so why not just make it simple.(thanks Alpha!!) The VIX did recapture the trendline and needs to get back outside of it ASAP.


  1. Hey Michael: Nice work per usual.

    We have 180 degree differenct counts buy similar conclusions. Like brothers from a differennt mother. :-)


  2. Pug-Whatever happens, we are overbought at the time, and need a sell-off to correct the current conditions :)

  3. I'm with you Columbia, we need that Vix to turn ASAP. I hope the move up is finished, but I dread it might pop up maybe an overthrow in the morning to 1071-2. But, in this case I really hope you're right, not me.