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Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Tuesday updates

After the Bell Update:

I added this one after hours, it has been some what reliable for finding trend changes in the market. Interesting how this rally was weaker and the percent of stocks did not reach the highs of the last rally, more signs of the weakness in P2 as we near the end, if not all ready there.

The M.O. still has lots of room to run to the downside when looking at the STO!

Not sure of what to make out of the sell-off today, it was expected considering the overbought conditions and the negative divergences on all the charts, but to me we did not get a clear five count impulse wave down, looks more corrective, and the buying looked more like a "B" wave then an impulse wave up.

I added one more trendline to the above chart, and expect that will be broken very soon. The Vix today also acted unusual, but that is been happening for the last few days.

We did break out of the channel, and out of the bullish Fib fan, the sell-off just did not go as well as I hoped!!

We ended the day with Decliners beating Advancers 1.9:1, on increased sell volume.

Here is the Renko version after the bell, it is still indecisive as to what count is suitable for the sell-off, but has some clues, MACD is still giving sell signals and trending down with negative Histrogram bars showing, The RSI is also showing more weakness ahead, but is at the "0" line, normally a spot for correction to begin. STO, still has room to run to the downside.

It leaves me leaning more bearish then bullish for the open in the morning!!


Updated, 9:04

Update, 9:04- This is a very interesting chart now, showing a change is coming, advancing issues are losing strength as shown by the progressive lower highs for the last few weeks, while at the same time declining issues are getting stronger, making higher highs!!

Update, 8:37-SPX has broke out of the channel, a very, berry, bearish sign, sending wave 4 into wave 1. Makes a good case that we might have the 5th wave in, with the MACD trending negative after hitting the trendline of resistance

As this rally from the beginning of October has worn-on, the breadth of it is getting worn-out, progressively making lower highs, and higher lows, as the strength of the rally is diminishing. The same can also be said with regards to the volume, this rally is on its last leg, and that leg is getting real wobbly.


  1. Hey, Col I posted this on your previous post by mistake

    Hey Col great work. ONe thing though on the Renko, the MACD is usually a confirming tool in that there should be a bearish cross for wave iv and a bullish, albeit short recross for wave v. Also the Stochs often trace out a 3 wave pattern (m shaped), on the 5 min Renko there is only one move noted on the Stochs. And on the RSI, the two peaks following 3, could very well be the a and c peaks of 4. Now, you could be spot on. We won't know until next week probably. But, my read of the Renko leads me to believe we are still looking for a wave 5.

    Let's watch, in all likelihood, the student has probably already surpassed his teacher

  2. After I posted i noticed you had a 15 min Renko, threw me for a loop. Anyway, here's my 5 min Renko$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&id=p76527833829&a=169182483

  3. Hey Alpha, my 5 minute is much more bullish then the chart I posted, but I wanted to get the whole rally in the chart and eliminate some noise, so used the 15 minute. :)

  4. That is a nice chart you have going, you need to share that one with more people. A lot of time and work was spent in putting it all together!!

  5. Hey guys, here is our updates.

  6. Col, you come up with the most interesting blogs, where do you find them all?