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Thursday, October 8, 2009

Thursday Update

How about a look at the bigger picture, a weekly chart for the SPX, volume is really declining since the bottom, and the Full STO has reached an all time high and finally rolled over (did you noticed how far it has to go before it bottoms out this time!!), with negative divergence on the Histogram of the PPO, and the PPO starting to roll over, hard to be long-term Bullish after seeing this!!

After the bell, update, It is very possible that we still have one more quick wave up to complete 5 full waves, the last half of the day looked more like a wave 4 consolidation triangle, then the start of a wave that would be correcting the rally, again, volume was lighter the normal.

I posted the chart above after reading about the possibility that this might be a corrective wave up, and wanted to see if it was possible to put a count on it, if we were to have one more run up, it would be seven waves, interesting, even if it does not play out.

We got are five waves up this morning, should have a correction, then we will see if this was only wave 1, with more the come on the up-side, or if there is more downside a head of us. Right now there are so many different options that I am not going to try and guess which one I think is most likely, wait for Mr. Market to give some more clues!!!


  1. Hey bro! Yeah, this market is a *TRAIN-WRECK!*. I don't know if you saw my latest post, but I agree, things aren't looking so hot for the old bear team :) However, whether you count the move from the top as a 1-2, starting 3 or an A-B, starting C, that means we should have a pretty decent 5 wave move down tomorrow. My bet it that it targets the apex of the triangle from yesterday, or at the very least closes the gap from the morning. Should be a decent short term trade for those so inclined. Later man!

  2. Good analysis on the trendlines. It tells us that the rallying since the initial push (wave A) from the 666 lows, continues to decline in momentum and conviction. The key now is to break the ascending trendline on the daily chart for the entire rally.

  3. Todd, if you liked that chart with the trendlines, check out the very first chart here, there are 7 trends going from 666, and none of them broken