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Friday, October 30, 2009

Friday updates

This is an optional count, based on the gap, which is normally in wave iii of 3.
After the bell, The indexes got hammered again today, all closing near their lows for the day, and breaking through Wednesdays lows. I am still debating if we are in wave 5 down, or if yesterday developed another 1-2 pattern. If today was a 5th, then I would of expected volume to decline, from what we saw in the 3rd wave Wednesday, but instead it was even heavier then what we saw in the 3rd. Breadth was not quite as high as Wednesday's 8.62:1, but still very a respectful 6.55:1, decliners, but on higher sell volume.

I also believe that with the new low today, any corrective a-b-c bullish options from the highs, got thrown out the window, because we no longer have only three completed waves on the table.

On the micro counts, we ended in a 4th wave, with a little more to come Monday morning to finish the smaller degree 5th wave, and very possibly the entire wave down. If the super bearish option of 1-2, 1-2, down plays out, Monday will be very ugly, and should leave no doubt, that we are in that count. We would open right in iii of 3 down. VIX made a new high today!!!




Here is something I mentioned in my blog yesterday, what if the rally yesterday was part of another 1-2, in a smaller degree?
It would solve the problem on the DOW of wave 4 entering wave1,( BTW, Kenny also has a very good explanation for that with a LD). The structure of the rally yesterday looks more like a 2nd wave rather then a 4th wave. It is a wild and crazy idea, that is very bearish, but might be worth keeping on your Radar!!
Comments?



6 comments:

  1. definitely would be very bearish, if yesterday was a 2nd wave -

    but imagine how bearish it'd be, if it still was just a 4th, and the 2nd and then the 3rd, were still enroute...

    spooky and scary ;-) happy halloween

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  2. why so craZY? we have not seen this kind of volume for some time..

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  3. in other words,, is it rare to see 1-2,1-2. ? I am not proficient in ew.

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  4. "is it rare to see 1-2,1-2?"
    Absolutely not. 1-2,1-2's happen quite frequently, all you have to do is look back at the rally from 666 earlier this year.

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  5. I have a gut feeling you may be correct,, the fractals fit, and if we came up with 1-2,1-2,, it stands to reason we will 1-2,1-2 on the way down.

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